Crossing the Sea 2016year8month30day

View All · Published on 2016-8-30 17:50:42

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Crossing the Sea 2016year8month30day

Focus this week:
8month30day(Tuesday)
U.S.A7Dallas Federal ReservePCEPrice index truncated mean
U.S.A6monthCaseShiller 20个城市房价指数
U.S.A8Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
U.S.A8月达拉斯联储服务业营收指数

8month31day(Wednesday)
U.S.A8monthADPChanges in private employment positions
U.S.A8Month ChicagoPMI
U.S.A7Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed

9month1day(Thursday)
U.S.A8monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
美国第二季单位劳工成本修订
美国第二季非农业生产力
U.S.A8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
U.S.A7Monthly construction expenditure rate
U.S.A8monthISMManufacturing Index

9month2day(Friday)
U.S.A8Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A8Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A7Monthly International Trade Balance
U.S.A8monthISM-纽约商业活动指数
U.S.A7Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A7Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision

Important economic data released today:
17：00 eurozone8Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧forecast+0.36‧Previous value0.39
17：00 eurozone8Monthly Economic Prosperity Index‧forecast104.1‧Previous value104.6
17：00 eurozone8Monthly Industrial Prosperity Index‧Predict negative2.7‧Negative front value2.4
17：00 eurozone8Monthly Service Industry Prosperity Index‧forecast11.2‧Previous value11.1
17：00 eurozone8Final value of monthly consumer confidence index‧Predict negative8.5‧Negative front value7.9
17：00 eurozone8Monthly Consumer Inflation Expectation Index‧Previous value3.7
17：00 eurozone8月生产者通胀预期指数‧Previous value0.2
20：00 Germany8Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Initial monthly rate‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.4%
20：00 Germany8Monthly Consumer Price Reconciliation Index(HICP)Annual rate initial value‧forecast+0.5%‧Previous value+0.4%
20：00 Germany8Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Initial monthly rate‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.3%
20：00 Germany8Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Annual rate initial value‧forecast+0.5%‧Previous value+0.4%
20：30 加拿大第二季流动帐平衡‧forecast205.0A deficit of one billion yuan‧Previous value167.7A deficit of one billion yuan
20：30 Canada7月工业产品价格月率‧forecast-0.1%‧Previous value+0.6%
20：30 Canada7月工业产品价格年率‧Previous value-0.8%
20：30 Canada7月原材料价格月率‧forecast-1.2%‧Previous value+1.8%
20：30 Canada7月原材料价格年率‧Previous value-9.0%
21：00 U.S.A6monthCaseShiller 20个城市经季节调整房价指数月率‧forecast-0.1%‧Previous value-0.1%
21：00 U.S.A6monthCaseShiller 20个城市未经季节调整房价指数月率‧Previous value+0.9%
21：00 U.S.A6monthCaseShiller 20个城市房价指数年率‧forecast+5.2%‧Previous value+5.2%
22：00 U.S.A8Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧forecast97.0‧Previous value97.3
22：30 U.S.A8月达拉斯联储服务业营收指数‧Previous value10.3

News of the Week

U.S.A7Monthly personal income increased compared to the previous month0.4%
U.S.A7Monthly personal consumption expenditure(PCE)物价指数较前月持平
U.S.A7monthPCEThe price index has increased compared to the same period last year0.8%
U.S.A7Monthly CorePCEThe price index has increased compared to the previous month0.1%
U.S.A7Monthly CorePCEThe price index has increased compared to the same period last year1.6%
U.S.A7月个人支出较前月增加0.3%

8month29day
Londongold上午定盘价：假期休市
伦敦黄金下午定盘价：假期休市

Today's Introduction

U.S.A7月消费者支出连续第四个月上涨，因对汽车的需求强劲，直指经济加速增长，可能为美国联邦储备理事会(FED)今年升息铺平道路。商务部称，上月消费者支出上涨0.3%，增幅符合分析师预期，6Monthly increase0.5%。这表明消费者支出维持了第二季的大部分上涨动能。这一快速上涨帮助缓解了库存大幅减少和企业投资长时间下滑带来的部分影响。7月的消费者支出数据乐观，提振美元走强。根据CME GroupofFedWatch，金融市场目前消化的美联储在9month20-21日会议上升息的可能性为30%On12月会议上升息的可能性为57.2%。

美联储主席耶伦在上周五的全球央行官员年会上表示，近几个月升息的理由越来越充分，为早至下月就升息埋下伏笔。美联储副主席费舍尔也表示，耶伦的表态与今年可能升息的预期相符。目前市场关注本周将公布的美国经济数据，如周五的非农就业数据，是会增强对美联储将很快升息的预期，还是会导致这一预期降温。

XAU London Gold - 耶伦言论偏鹰，黄金受压挫低

伦敦黄金周一受美元回落带动，从近五周低位反弹，摆脱稍早因美国联邦储备理事会(FED)高阶官员的讲话而面临的压力。美联储主席耶伦和副主席费希尔的讲话点燃了美联储会尽早升息的臆测。在美国怀俄明州杰克森霍尔举行的全球央行官员年会上，美联储主席耶伦表示，经济表现改善，增加了再度升息的理据。之后，美联储副主席费希尔表示，今年年底前仍可能加息。根据CME GroupofFedWatch工具，市场消化的9月升息机率超过30%，高于耶伦和费希尔讲话前的18%。金价盘中触及7month26The lowest in recent days1314.70美元，其后回升上1325水平，结束过去的六日连跌。

As seen in the technical chart,4Days9Days and25天平均线均呈向下交迭，亦即同时出现两个利淡交叉，示意金价后市倾向弱势发展。此外，随着三角型态底部失守，亦令技术面更形恶化。若以黄金比率计算，38.2%and50%的回调目标为1308and1287美元。另一关键测试点将会指向7month21Daily low1310美元，假若届时走至此区，则会形成一组双顶型态，而此区亦成为颈线位置，跌破后延伸幅度预料可至100Balance moving average1294水平。阻力预估在1333and1343For materials with high resistance1354USD.

London Gold8month30day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1320 – 1333
Resistance level:1343 – 1354
Support bit:1310 – 1300

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
8month1Day - 964.03ton
8month2Day - 969.97ton
8month3Day - 969.65ton
8month4Day - 973.21ton
8month5Day - 980.34ton
8month8Day - 973.80ton
8month9Day - 972.62ton
8month10Day - 972.62ton
8month11Day - 972.32ton
8month12Day - 960.45ton
8month15Day - 960.45ton
8month16Day - 962.23ton
8month17Day - 957.78ton
8month18Day - 955.99ton
8month19Day - 955.99ton
8month22Day - 958.37ton
8month23Day - 958.37ton
8month24Day - 958.37ton
8month25Day - 956.59ton
8month26Day - 956.59ton
8month29Day - 956.59ton

10Monthly goldfuturesDue date:10month27day
10Monthly goldoptionDue date:9month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2016year8month4day)

Global:32803.5ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3378.2ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.8ton
China(6)：1823.3ton
Russia(7)：1498.7ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton

XAG London Silver - 银价失守三角下行

伦敦白银方面，从图表可见，前期银价走势处于三角型态内运行，而此前一周已告明确跌破三角底部，预料后市仍有机会在存在新一轮调整。下方支撑先看18.10and17.60，下一级至17.30。上方阻力则留意下降趋向线在19.73美元，短线较近阻力料为19.30USD.

London Silver8month30day
Predicting early wave amplitude:18.10 – 19.30
Resistance level:19.90 – 20.10
Support bit:17.60 – 17.30

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
8month1Day - 10915.95ton
8month2Day - 10911.57ton
8month3Day - 10911.57ton
8month4Day - 10911.57ton
8month5Day - 10911.57ton
8month8Day - 10941.12ton
8month9Day - 10941.12ton
8month10Day - 10941.12ton
8month11Day - 10941.12ton
8month12Day - 10941.12ton
8month15Day - 10941.12ton
8month16Day - 10941.12ton
8month17Day - 10988.39ton
8month18Day - 11056.34ton
8month19Day - 11056.34ton
8month22Day - 11159.74ton
8month23Day - 11159.74ton
8month24Day - 11159.74ton
8month25Day - 11100.66ton
8month26Day - 11100.66ton
8month29Day - 11130.20ton

EUR euro - 摆脱整理区间

欧元兑美元走势，图表走势所见，欧元兑美元冲破了100天平均线，两周前受制于此指针，目前100The antenna is in1.1220，若汇价仍可持稳此区之上，则有望保持涨势。由5month3Daily high1.1614to6month24Daily low1.0909Calculate the cumulative decline of,61.8%的反弹水平将会达至1.1345，6Monthly high1.1432亦会为另一参考，重要阻力指向1.15水平。下方较大支持则预估在250Balance moving average1.1110，进一步则以1.09为重要依据。

Focus:
Tuesday: Italy6Monthly retail sales‧eurozone8Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧Economic Sentiment Index‧工业景气指数‧服务业景气指数‧消费者信心指数终值‧消费者通胀预期指数‧生产者通胀预期指数‧Germany8monthHICPinitial value‧CPIinitial value
Wednesday: France7Monthly consumer expenditure rate&#8231PI‧France8monthHICPinitial value‧Germany8Changes in monthly unemployment numbers‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate‧Italy7Monthly unemployment rate‧薪资指数‧Italy8monthHICPinitial value‧CPIinitial value‧eurozone8monthHICPinitial value‧eurozone7Monthly unemployment rate
Thursday: Italy8monthMarkit/ADACImanufacturingPMI‧France8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMI‧Germany8monthMarkit/BMEmanufacturingPMI‧eurozone8monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value
周五：意大利第二季GDPFinal value‧eurozone7monthPPI

Related news
Germany7Monthly import prices have increased compared to the previous month0.1%, down from the same period last year3.8%

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1345 – 1.1432 – 1.1500
support 1.1220 – 1.1110 – 1.0900

JPY yen - 日本数据低迷，央行存放宽政策压力

Japan7月家庭支出降幅小于预期，这为致力于将日本拉出经济停滞的决策者带来些许希望。但由于经济几无增长，加上通胀距离日本央行2%目标愈来愈远，大多数分析师预期央行下个月将会进一步宽松政策，届时央行也将对现有的刺激计划效果进行全面的评估。总务省周二公布的数据显示，7月经家庭支出较上年同期下降0.5%The decline is smaller than the median market estimate0.9%。另一份数据显示，7Monthly retail sales decreased compared to the same period last year0.2%，降幅同样低于预估中值的下滑0.9%。7Monthly unemployment rate from6Of3.1%lower3.0%，触及逾21年来最低位，并接近央行认定的充分就业水平。

当被问到日本政府是否会干预汇市以阻止日圆过度上涨时，日本内阁官房长官菅义伟周二表示，政府正密切关注市场走势，并准备“适当”应对。菅义伟还维护日本央行备受争议的负利率政策，称这类举措如果帮助改善经济，将使金融机构受益。菅义伟表示，如果央行政策能成功地提振经济，那么也将给金融机构带来“巨大”好处，并称应由央行来决定具体的货币政策举措。他表示，重要的是政府和央行要通力合作击退通缩，同时要尊重央行的独立性，令其免受政治干预。

美联储政策的去宽松化与其它国家央行政策的再宽松化，令美国与其它大部份主要国家的货币政策出现了明显分化。对于日本央行将在9月会议上采取更多刺激措施的预期增强，料将继续压抑日圆。日本政府在8月报告中维持经济评估不变，但对于消费者通胀的看法较上月略显悲观，因家庭支出走疲拖累物价下滑，并且日圆走强拉低了进口成本。上周公布的路透调查显示，多数分析师预期日本央行9月份将进一步放松政策，此外，许多受访者猜测，日本央行也可能调整通胀目标措辞。但约有40%的受访分析师表示，他们预期日本央行将维持货币政策不变。

图表走势所见，美元兑日圆上周大致在100关口附近上下徘徊，至周五才见显著波动，升见至接近102水平，延至本周一升见102.40水平。图表上可见到汇价已突破三角区间，亦可视为延伸自七月的下降趋向线，突破此区后，应可见汇价重新上扬，延展目标料为50Balance moving average102.70and104Horizontal, further visible100Balance moving average105.60。支持位则回看101.60and100Gateway.

Focus:
Wednesday: Japan7Initial value of monthly industrial production‧一个月预估值初值‧两个月预估值初值‧建筑订单年率‧房屋开工年率
Thursday: Japan invested in overseas bonds the previous week‧Foreign investment in Japanese stocks‧日本第二季商业资本支出年率‧Japan8Monthly and daily manufacturing industryPMI
Friday: Japan8Monthly Consumer Confidence Index

Related news
穆迪确认日本评级为A1Looking forward to stability

Japan7月家庭支出同比减少0.5%
Japan7月零售销售同比下滑0.2%
Japan7The monthly unemployment rate has decreased3.0%, creating21Annual low

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 101.70 – 104.00 – 105.60
support 101.60 – 100.00 – 99.20*

GBP pound - Continuation of disputes and disputes

图表走势所见，英镑兑美元近月处于横盘状态，下方底部大致处于1.3050to1.30区域，下延目标将看至1.28and1.26Horizontal. The upper resistance material is50Balance moving average1.33，此区同时亦为下降趋向线位置，破位料可望英镑重新踏上升轨，目标可看至1.3370and1.3480Horizontal.

Focus:
8month30day(two): UK7Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply
8month31day(three): UK8monthGfKConsumer confidence index‧Nationwidehousing price
9month1day(four): UK8monthMarkit/CIPSmanufacturingPMI
9month2day(five): UK8monthMarkit/CIPSconstructionPMI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3300 – 1.3370 – 1.3480
support 1.3050 – 1.3000 – 1.2800 – 1.2600

CHF Swiss franc - beautiful/瑞守稳0.95brace

Swiss think tankKOF周二公布，瑞士8monthKOF领先成长指标降至99.8，表明瑞士经济前景略微恶化。7monthKOF领先成长指标修正为 103.5, initial value is102.7。该数据反映瑞士经济在未来六个月左右的预期表现。

迾周汇价显著反弹，随着相对强弱指标及随机指数均自超卖区域回升，美元兑瑞郎或仍见上升动力，即市较近阻力可先留意200Balance moving average0.9840and1.00关口。下方支持仍会瞩目于0.95水平，下一级关键在5month3Daily low0.9440。

Related news
瑞士第二季非农就业岗位较上年同期增0.6%to490.3Ten thousand
Switzerland8monthKOF领先成长指标为99.8

Focus:
8month31day(three)Switzerland7UBS Group(UBS)Consumer index
9month1day(four)Switzerland7Monthly retail sales annual rate‧Switzerland8Monthly manufacturing industryPMI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9840 – 1.0000
support 0.9500* – 0.9440

AUD AUD - 短线呈动荡

图表走势分析，由2014year7Monthly high0.9505to2016year1Monthly low0.6827，其累积跌幅的38.2%反弹幅度1023点，亦即为0.7850，相当接近今年4Monthly high0.7836。澳元随后展开一段〝V〞型走势，先是下滑至5month24Daily low0.7145，之后又重新反弹，延至上周高见0.7760，因此，向上0.7850将视为一重要参阻力，同时亦为双底型态之颈线位置，后市若可突破此区，将有望摆脱近年来于低位区间挣扎的局面。初步延伸目标料先看0.80这个心理关口；进一步目标预计为0.8165, for50%的反弹水准。在短期走势则需留意，澳元上周触及高位后出现回落，并促使相对强弱指标及随机指数亦已呈回落状态，短线仍存在调整压力。关键支撑见于延伸自5月底的上升趋向线，目前处于0.7570水准，目前已初步失守，澳元料仍见承压，调整幅度料会延伸至0.7450To the extent that0.7380Horizontal.

Related news
Australia7月经季节调整后建筑许可较前月跳涨11.3%, increased compared to the same period last year3.1%

Focus:
8month31day(three): Australia7monthHIA新屋销售月率‧民间部门信贷‧Housing credit
9month1day(four)：澳洲第二季资本支出季率‧建筑资本支出季率‧厂房/机械设备资本支出‧Australia7Monthly retail sales rate

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7850 – 0.8000 – 0.8165
support 0.7570 – 0.7450 – 0.7380

NZD New Zealand dollars - 纽西兰央行总裁惠勒：无需很快连续降息

纽元兑美元方面，图表见相对强弱指标及随机数据回落，示意纽元可能正步入调整阶段，向下测试一短期上升趋向线于0.72水平，破位将确立回调走势；以自五月底起始的累积涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的调整目标将达至0.7095and0.7015Next level can be seen in0.6935。上方阻力预估在0.7350and100Monthly average line0.7460Horizontal, the key lies in0.75Horizontal.

Focus:
8month30day(two): New Zealand7Monthly Building Permit
8month31day(three): New Zealand8monthNBNZ商业展望指数‧NBNZBusiness Activity Index
9month1day(four)：纽西兰第二季贸易条件季率

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7350 – 0.7460 – 0.7500
support 0.7200* – 0.7095 – 0.7015 – 0.6935

CAD Cad - 油价下挫打压加元

美元兑加元周一重返1.30水平，脱离上周五低位1.2818。图表走势所见，当前的临界点为1.2650Previously, in6month8Of1.2651and6month23Of1.2674Both have not broken through this area and have shown significant rebound; Therefore, it is currently necessary to focus on whether this area can continue to maintain stability. If it fails, it is estimated that the target can be extended to1.25To the extent that5Monthly low1.2458。然而，亦需留意相对强弱指及随机指数已出现回升，美元短线仍有回弹倾向。预估阻力在1.30and1.3080Greater resistance can be seen in200Balance moving average1.3280Horizontal.

Focus:
8month30day(two)：加拿大第二季流动帐平衡‧Canada7月工业产品价格‧原材料价格
8month31day(three): Canada6monthGDPMonthly rate‧Canada Season 2GDP
9month1day(four): Canada8monthRBCmanufacturingPMI
9month2day(five): Canada7Monthly trade balance‧Export‧Import‧加拿大第二季劳动生产率季率

Related news
Canada6Monthly wholesale trade increased compared to the previous month0.7%，为连续第三个月增长

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3000 – 1.3080 – 1.3280
support 1.2920 – 1.2760 – 1.2650* – 1.2500

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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)