Fei Yifei: Interest rate hikes cannot contain the "lifeline" of gold prices, and there is only a limited amount of gold available in advance

　　
The purpose of investment is to make profits, not to operate based on operation. This is not the purpose of your investment. If you have thought about the addiction of operation, please do simulation and do not use your hard-earned money as your own toy. Of course, if you are stubborn, please continue as if I am meddling in my own business!But for friends who want to operate well, when you see trends and profits, you must seize them. While doing a good job in risk control, you must seize your own profits, complete your ideas, and achieve your goals.
　　
After the baptism of interest rate hikes by Federal Reserve officials, yesterday's gold price trend was quite comedic. After a small consolidation at the beginning of the morning, it quickly fell and hit its lowest point1315On the first line, it gives the impression of a downward break and a sharp drop, while during the subsequent Asian session, the gold price stabilizes at the morning low and continues to break through the high in a fluctuating upward manner. This state continues until the end of the US market, and finally the daily line closes with a small bullish line1322.7One area. Overall, Monday9The fluctuation range around the US dollar is really limited, and the only good trading opportunity is to break through the bottom in the morning, go long in the market, and have operational value. Once it falls short, subsequent trading will be limited everywhere, and the space is not large. Any slight mishandling will be futile.
　　
Previously, Yellen's attitude was interpreted by the market as leaning towards hawks, and the upcoming non farm employment data for August, which will be released this Friday, is undoubtedly the focus of the market. Since last year, the Federal Reserve has been12After the first interest rate hike in the month, it has been nearly9After a natural month, there has been no further action, and it can be said that we have now reached a difficult time riding a tiger. In the past six months, in terms of non-agricultural data alone, the performance has improved from poor to good, especially in the six and seven data, which are particularly impressive. However, in other aspects, such as inflation indexPMIWait and so on, obviously not meeting the expectations of the Federal Reserve. Therefore, the importance of Friday's data situation is even more prominent, and it will be used as an important reference indicator for September's monetary policy by the Federal Reserve under Yellen's leadership.
　　
If non-agricultural sectors continue to remain strong, it is the best support for hawkish views,9The expectation of monthly interest rate hikes is bound to continue to rise, and at that timegoldBulls will find it difficult to stop bearish attacks, and if this non farm data is dismal, it will be insufficient20Ten thousand people, in the current situation where investor expectations of interest rate hikes continue to increase, it is bound to cause a huge market shock. At that time, there is no hope that gold will break below, and it will reverse the bearish trend in the short term. However, based on the obvious hawkish views expressed by several Federal Reserve officials recently, this possibility is relatively small. If the non farm employment population is too low and it is difficult to support hawkish remarks, wouldn't it be too shameful? Of course, all of this will be discussed later. Obviously, before the data is released, the market attitude will also be quite cautious, and the probability of gold going low and fluctuating is high, making it difficult to cause any major waves.
　　
Technically speaking, gold closed at a low daily level yesterday, which can be seen as a signal to temporarily stop falling at the beginning of the week. Without any news to push it forward, there is insufficient momentum to directly break through the level. Currently, the downward trend mainly comes from two sources of support1310as well as1315On the first line, the gold price above can maintain a volatile consolidation pattern, and it is expected that there is a possibility of further rebound and upward trend after a slight downward retreat in the Asian and European markets1325There are obvious signs of obstruction on the front line, which is consistent with the low point of yesterday's late trading retreat1322Forming a narrow consolidation range with small cycles, the Asia Europe market needs to focus on the gains and losses of the range. If it effectively breaks down, it can be basically confirmed that the gold correction has ended and will continue to decline1330-33It is the defensive line of today's bears, and the possibility of further decline before breaking through here will be greatly reduced. At that time, it is likely to trigger bears to take profits and further push up the gold price. However, under strong selling pressure last Friday, the possibility of breaking through is almost zero, so there is no need to think too much, so gold is only short under this situation.
　　
　　crude oilOn the one hand, there have been no new positive news about frozen production recently, and investor enthusiasm for the frozen production agreement has diminished. On the other hand, the crude oil market still faces two major challenges: the dual pressure of the US dollar and inventory. After Yellen's speech, the US dollar began to take a long position, while frozen production has experienced a wave of three fold changes since its proposal. Iran sometimes participates and sometimes has conditions. Yesterday, it claimed that it will only participate in frozen production negotiations after fully regaining its original market share. Saudi Arabia is even more unconventional in wanting only a share, regardless of how low the crude oil price is. Rumors of Saudi oil facilities being hit by Yemeni missiles last Friday have also been denied, and crude oil has slightly withdrawn without the support of positive news.
　　
Technically speaking, the daily chart closed with a small shadow. Yesterday, crude oil fluctuated between bullish and bearish neighborhoods, with prices mainly operating on46.5-47.3Between now, the Asia Europe market needs to focus on the gains and losses of the range. Currently, the daily chart maintains a three consecutive negative alignment, indicating that the adjustment of oil prices is still ongoing47.3Especially48.5The selling pressure on the front line is severe, and the bearish adjustment is difficult to end before breaking through upwards. At the same time, the current oil price is mainly affected by the downward trend46as well as46.4Horizontal support, it is obvious that this has formed a relay position for the subsequent adjustment of crude oil, and will face a long backlash at any time before falling below,4On the hour, yesterday's late trading price refreshed46.6After the low point, it was strongly pulled up, and the support below remained strong. Currently, the price remains stable47Belt consolidation, if it breaks through yesterday's high point47.3It is highly likely that the rebound will continue, with an upward trend48.3In addition, with the positive development of short-term indicators and the initial golden cross of random indicators waiting to be increased, today's operations can rely on46.5First, participate in a rebound with multiple orders, short and wait for a reversal to short. Keep abreast of market information, grasp major trends, and help you make steady profits.
　　
Suggestions for Gold Operations:
　　
　　1，1313-1315Long, stop loss1310Below, target1320-1323
　　
　　2，1326-1328Short selling, stop loss1333Above, look at the target1320-15
　　
Silver operation suggestion:
　　
　　1，18.8-19Short selling, target18.3-18.1Multiple first-time touches18Nearby participation
　　
Suggestions for crude oil operation:
　　
　　1，47.7-47.9Short selling, stop loss48.3Above, target47-46.5frontline
　　
　　2，46.4-46.6Long, stop loss46Below, target47.5
　　
Disclaimer: The above article was written by analyst Fei Yifei, and some news and information content is excerpted from online resources. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investment carries risks, and investors operate accordingly at their own risk. Please indicate the source when reprinting.