Su Qianqin:8month25现货原油弱而不跌，后市走势分析

　　crude oil、沥青短期基本面利空不断，导致油价短线偏弱。首先是伊朗尚未明确表态是否加入OPEC冻产行列，令冻产预期降温;其次美国APICrude oil inventory andEIA原油库存全部大幅增长，引发市场供给过剩的担忧，油价周三录得下跌，下方46关口岌岌可危。46关口是非常重要支撑，目前10日均线就在这里，在均线系统中，跌破10日均线则日线趋势就不再强势，所以周四的行情很关键，关系到周线的收线。

WednesdayEIAquotation47.20果断做空46.50减仓剩余空单继续持有。周四，盘面上出现明显的横盘整理，一旦跌破46关口短期内就很难扭转，但也不能排除多头主力依赖十日线反攻的可能，不过，从油价日内的波动规律看，白盘依然受到空头控制，美盘时段大资金活跃油价才有大幅波动可能，如果今日企稳上涨一定是在美盘，如果白盘上涨反而容易陷入震荡，苏倩芩个人的判断是白盘维持弱势。短线47Empty stop loss47.50see46.50-40。美盘根据盘式再议，十日线附近谨慎对待。

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Author: Su Qianqin

　　2016.8.25