Fei Yifei: The market is in a wait-and-see state, waiting to break through the narrow range oscillation pattern

　　
Investors can make judgments based on their basic market expectations, but even if their judgments are accurate, the timing and intensity of market trends caused by these expectations may still far exceed your expectations. This actually proves how difficult it is to accurately predict the market - even if it relies on a bunch of proven correct judgments. Because if market fluctuations are a big deal, then "fact" is just one of the ingredients.
　　
The market has been extremely light these days, and the market is like headless flies in a glass bottle, oscillating in a narrow range with no direction or trend. But compared to last week's multiple strong breakthroughs1350And probe upwards1360Resistance has made the market extremely weak this week. The first two trading days basically ran on1345Below, and below in the short term1335-1330The interval support is still strong and powerful. But Fei Yifei is relatively bearish this week, and the trading strategy is mainly based on short orders. Because Fei Yifeiq2930-550-190I believe that if we were to rise, we should have been able to break through the resistance above last week, but after missing the opportunity, the probability of stepping back and accumulating energy this week is much higher. In addition, several Federal Reserve officials have made hawkish speeches, and market expectations for interest rate hikes have significantly increased. This may be the main reason for the sluggish market trend in the first few trading days of this week. But the conclusion of this week still needs to wait for Yellen's speech on Friday. His remarks are biased towards hawks or pigeons, which may help the market break through the recent narrow range volatility pattern to some extent.
　　
Previously, Federal Reserve officials Fisher and Dudley frequently made hawkish remarks, and San Francisco Fed Chairman Williams also hinted at the central bank9The monthly interest rate hike is under planning. Federal interest ratefuturesSurvey shows that the Federal Reserve12The probability of a monthly interest rate hike is51%. Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen will give a keynote speech at the Global Central Bank Annual Meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Friday, but whether she can convince financial markets that she can lead the divided Federal Reserve to2016Raising interest rates at least once a year would be a big question mark. For financial markets, Yellen's speech this week is undoubtedly a major test, but for Yellen, it is also a great challenge to maintain his own credibility. Due to only three policy meetings remaining this year, investors doubt whether the Federal Reserve can only stay out of it.
　　
With the recent resurgence of hawkish Federal Reserve sentiment, the rise in gold prices has begun to slow down. Especially7Since the rise and fall of the monthly market, it has remained within a narrow range of around 30 points in August, and there are not many remaining trading days in August. It is even more difficult to break through at the end of the month. Currently, it depends on the long and short struggle to determine whether the market will close positive or negative, which may have a certain guiding effect on the future market. The main events in the second half of the year are the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and the US election. If these two major events happen again, the impact on the market will also be significant. At present, we can only follow the market step by step, without too much speculation and prediction, as long as we follow the trend step by step. In terms of intraday market, the current market fluctuation is very small, and there is basically no trading space. At present, the author's official account costs a lotfyfai8It is also recommended that customers remain idle and wait. Breakthrough above1340Or fall below1335Only then will there be a market trend, and the probability of a one-sided market trend today is not high. We can wait for the market to come out before going high and low.
　　
SpotgoldPartial single point positioning:
　　
　　1If there is a breakthrough above1340, waiting1343-1345Frontline entry empty orders, stop loss1348Look at the target below1335-1333-1330frontline;
　　
　　2If it falls below1335wait for1332-1328Long on the front line, stop loss1325On the target1336-1338Frontline, breakthrough can be held and seen1343Nearby;
　　
　　3If the market unexpectedly breaks through the volatile range, the specific order fee will be given in real time based on the market situation.
　　
United StatesAPIData display as of8month19Day of the Week, USAcrude oilInventory increase446.4Ten thousand barrels, increasing inventory of Kuxin crude oil41.7Ten thousand barrels.
　　
Although the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates has reignited, the oil market is not lacking in favorable factors,9The OPEC will renegotiate the freeze on production in the month of, and even Iran, which has been opposing the freeze, has stated this week that it will attend the meeting. Iran may participate in the meetingOPECThe meeting will cooperate with the freeze production, which means Iran's attitude is warming up. Previously, Saudi Arabia and Russia had hinted that they would stabilize the market. The attitude of these three countries is very important for the direction of the oil market, because9At the monthly meeting, Saudi Arabia and Iran's crude oil production had already reached its peak, which may be the key to Iran's shift in attitude(The significant increase in crude oil production has led to low oil prices, lowered profits, and increased production costs. After lifting the ban for a period of time, Iran may no longer be focusing on seizing market share and ignoring production costs to extract crude oil.). The trend of crude oil asphalt needs to be closely monitored in the upcoming week to be announced in the eveningEIAInventory data, if the data continues to be bearish, asphalt will further decline.
　　
Single point positioning for asphalt section:
　　
　　1Upward rebound4650-4670Short on the front line, stop loss4700Look at the target below4600-4580-4550frontline;
　　
　　2Step back below4500-4480Long on the front line, stop loss4450On the target4580-4600frontline;
　　
　　3If the market breaks through in the evening, there is no rush to follow up on orders. You can wait for the market to stabilize before entering the market.
　　
Evening Follow:
　　
　　21:00U.S.A6monthFHFAMonthly rate of housing price index
　　
　　22:00U.S.A7Annualized total monthly housing sales
　　
　　22:30From the United States to8month19Day and WeekEIACrude oil inventory
　　
Disclaimer: The above article was written by analyst Fei Yifei, and some news and information content is excerpted from online resources. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. There are risks involved in investment, and investors will operate accordingly at their own risk. Please indicate the source when reprinting