Fei Yifei: Gold vs. Short1340Crude oil bottoms out and rebounds

　
　　
Your choices are wise and determine how freely you invest. Smart people play in the market, while those who follow the trend explore the market. There are thousands of reasons for losses, but only one reason for profits. Some people wear dragon robes to deceive themselves and deceive everything, while others are simple yet ambitious. A good scholar, the strength of a dummy to make up for its shortcomings,If you don't understand investment and financial management, you can learn from professionals and consult with analyst Weixinfyfai8Seeking guidance.
　　
The news during the first two trading days of this week was relatively light,goldUnder pressure, prices have been supported by a weakening US index and a global negative interest rate environment, and have been bullish for two consecutive days. Although the magnitude is not significant, its impact on the future market is crucial. Exploring the lowest decline in the current market trend1331Nearby support began to rebound,1330Regional support has been consolidated again, rising to1345There is resistance nearby, and although there has been a slight decline in the short term, the author believes that the downward force will not be significant.crude oilAfter falling from a high level, bulls in the US market have once again exerted their strength, and concerns about crude oil inventories and oversupply have always been important factors restricting the upward trend of crude oil. The market is concerned about9There is not much hope for monthly frozen production, and it is quite difficult to reach a frozen production agreement.
　　
The US dollar index has fluctuated and weakened, reaching its lowest point before94.21This provides rebound momentum for gold prices. In addition, after digesting the hawkish speeches of Federal Reserve officials, I believe that the global negative interest rate environment still helps gold prices continue to rise. However, the market is still paying attention to Yellen's attitude at this week's Jackson Hole annual meeting, and there is still significant downside risk for gold prices in the short term. Overall, the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this week continues to heat up, according to the US federal funds ratefuturesDisplay, Federal Reserve9The probability of monthly interest rate hikes has risen to28%，12The probability of monthly interest rate hikes increases to55%; This is expected to limit the upward potential of gold prices, and we also need to be cautious of the backlash of bears.
　　
International crude oil has bottomed out and rebounded, and the strong upward trend for several days has led to a slight decline in crude oil prices. However, the market is concerned about the continued oversupply situation, and in addition, there are concerns about9At the meeting of monthly oil producing countries, the market believes that the current crude oil production capacity is at a record high level, and even if a freeze is reached, it cannot improve the current oversupply situation. It is worth mentioning that in addition to the possibility of an increase in short-term supply from the Iraqi side5%The ceasefire agreement on the Nigerian side also helps to restore production capacity in the country, which will further increase market supply and resurface concerns about oversupply in the market. about9The oil production meeting in the month is generally expected to be pessimistic by the market.
　　
Gold daily self stabilization1330Temporarily oscillating in the future1340Near, above5Day,10Day,30The daily moving average is significantly suppressed, and regional resistance is concentrated in1343-1345At present, the daily Bollinger Bands are severely shrinking, and each time the Bollinger Bands shrink, it will inevitably bring a significant unilateral market trend. At present, the optimistic comments from Federal Reserve officials on the US economy have increased market expectations for the Fed to raise interest rates as soon as possible. If Yellen further emphasizes at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday9Expected monthly interest rate hikes, so gold may once again explore1330Or fall below1330Support. Fei Yifei, author's official account2930-5501-90It is believed that Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen is likely to release hawkish messages at the Jackson Hole annual meeting this Friday, which is expected to put pressure on gold prices. It is expected that there will not be too much volatility in the market before Yellen's speech. The gold trading strategy is as follows:
　　
　　1First exploration below the gold price1331-1333Long, stop loss3.8Points,1339-1341frontline
　　
　　2Gold price rebound1343-1345Short selling, stop loss1348Above, looking back at the target1337-1335frontline
　　
　　3Hang it below1321Multiple positions, stop loss1317Below, target1328-1330frontline
　　
The trend of crude oil is often unexpected, with relatively light fundamentals. The decline of the US index also provides support for crude oil. After continuously rising crude oil prices, it has rebounded and taken a break. However, during the US market, bulls have once again erupted. From the perspective of the asphalt daily chart,KThe line runs near the upper track of the Bollinger Bands, with the opening of the Bollinger Bands, as shown in the attached figureMACDIndicator in0Near the axis, there is a desire for the golden fork to ascend, starting from4From an early age,KThe line runs near the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and the Bollinger Bands have turned and leveled. Currently, the market has successfully broken through5The daily moving average is suppressed, and the red energy column is increasing in volume. Overall, after the short-term decline in oil prices, bulls are strong and breaking through, with short-term attention4680-4700Resistance situation, pay attention to below4550、4500Support in two positions. Single strategy for asphalt production:
　　
　　1Touching below asphalt4550-4530Multiple orders entering, stop loss40Points, target4630-4650frontline
　　
　　2First exploration above4680-4700Short selling, stop loss40Points, target4620-4600frontline
　　
Disclaimer: The above article was written by analyst Fei Yifei, and some news and information content is excerpted from online resources. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. For details, please consult Fei Yifei. Investment carries risks, and investors will operate accordingly at their own risk. When reprinting, please indicate the source