Fei Yifei: Gold is waiting for Yellen to speak, and the main focus is on the long lead time

　　
Today's Key Financial Data and Events2016.08.24
　　
　　①14:00Germany Q2 not seasonally adjustedGDPAnnual rate final value
　　
　　②21:00U.S.A6monthFHFAMonthly rate of housing price index
　　
　　③22:00U.S.A7Annualized total monthly housing sales
　　
　　④22:30From the United States to8month19Day and WeekEIAcrude oilstock
　　
As market investors wait for Yellen's speech to reassess the Fed's interest rate hike expectations, the two consecutive days of upward momentum in the US dollar abruptly come to an end, and oil prices begin to fall in spot pricesgoldSilver, on the other hand, fell into a high consolidation period. Although there was a slight rebound during the day, it quickly fell back and the US market touched overnight1345After the vicinity, the market continued to weaken, and the trend did not break through the upward watershed defined by the author. Therefore, before breaking through the upward resistance, the operation can mainly maintain short selling at high points, while the support below is still strong and strong. Breakthrough may need to wait for guidance from Yellen's speech.8month26Day, Yellen will attendJacksonHoleThe annual meeting of global central banks will deliver a speech. The specific time for the speech has not been announced yet, and the market expects Yellen to imply that the economic growth rate is sufficient to raise interest rates within the year.
　　
According to data released by the US Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce, the United States7Monthly sales of new homes increased month on month12.4%, a far greater than expected decline2%。6Monthly data increased from month on month3.5%Revised to add1.7%。7Annualized monthly sales of new homes65.4Wan, Chuang2007New high in recent years, expected to be58Ten thousand.6Monthly data from59.2Revised to 1000058.2Ten thousand.7Monthly sales of new homes increased significantly year-on-year31.3%. The latest data shows that new home sales continue to be at a high level. The US labor market is performing well, with mortgage rates at historically low levels, providing support for people's purchasing power. The strong US real estate market, coupled with rising housing prices, has led to an increase in household wealth. Fei Yifei Weixinfyfai8It is believed that this is beneficial for boosting consumer spending, supporting the economy, and offsetting the impact of declining corporate spending on the economy. So, the widespread increase in demand for new homes highlights the very bright prospects of the US housing market, which will help raise market expectations for future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The biggest commonality among senior Federal Reserve officials recently is their indecisiveness.
　　
It's already past the financial crisis7In the year, the differences among Federal Reserve officials have never reached such a level. In fact, in terms of interest rate hikes, although Fei Yifei has credibilityfyfai8Previously, I had been joking about the Federal Reserve's "zero credit" policy, but ultimately, the Federal Reserve also had some tough words because in order to maintain a symbolic management order, if the Fed's intention to raise interest rates is seen by the market as a destructive move, then this intention will quickly self correct and not even have to wait until the next timeFOMCMeeting. If the market is calm and good, then the Federal Reserve will seize the opportunity to raise interest rates, in order to release some flexibility without affecting the market or increasing volatility. Just like the Fed's rise/The interest rate cut has put the market on high alert, and the feedback from the market has also constrained the Federal Reserve, both of which have fallen into a "nightmare like" cycle. The market is stable, and the Federal Reserve wants to raise interest rates → the market is affected and declining → the Federal Reserve has postponed raising interest rates as a result → the market is recovering → once the market recovers, the Federal Reserve wants to raise interest rates again... In other words, all the "excitement" is only temporary. Federal Reserve7The monthly meeting minutes show that there is significant disagreement among Federal Reserve decision-makers on the issue of interest rate hikes, which may not be as hawkish as some investors had anticipated, but it still opens the door to decisions such as rate hikes.
　　
Compared to last week's bullish and bearish trend, gold has been very cautious in the first two trading days of this week and has been operating at a basic level1350Below, but still below1330Above the sturdy support. The daily market trend shows signs of contraction, with the fluctuation range of the market becoming narrower and the trend becoming more anxious. Fei Yifei2930/550/190It is optimistic that this week may be a downward trend to test support, so the first two trading days, except for Monday, will be in1330Apart from being bullish nearby, most of them are mainly short selling during high periods, and they can also make profits. From the current technical perspective, major moving averages are1340The adhesive above creates strong pressure on the market, and unless Yellen unexpectedly deviates, it is very difficult to break through in the short term. Although the support below is strong, it is not so indestructible. If Yellen can bring more interest rate hikes to the market, the probability of hitting support or even falling below it on Friday is very high. So it is recommended to break through the strong market trend1350Previously, we were still able to maintain a focus on short selling at high points in our operations. Still paying attention to the intraday market trend1330-1345Fluctuation range, above1345Take the opportunity to enter the air and break through1350Stop loss, looking back1338-1336Frontline; And below you can wait1335-1330Choose the opportunity to go long in the interval, and place the stop loss position1327Look up1338-1340A first-line rebound. Even if there is a breakthrough in the market before Friday, it is expected that there will not be too much room for improvement. In terms of operation, it is possible to maintain high selling and low slag as the main trend. Yellen will follow the trend after speaking and then operate accordingly.
　　
Spot gold trading at single point:
　　
　　1Upward rebound1339-1343First line batch entry, stop loss1347Look at the target below1335-1333-1330frontline;
　　
　　2Step back below1333-1330Long on the front line, stop loss1327On the target1338-1340frontline;
　　
　　3If it falls below1327wait for1323-1320Long on the front line, stop loss1317On the target1330-1335frontline;
　　
　　4As seen above1350-1353Short on the front line, stop loss1355Look at the target below1342-1340frontline.
　　
In terms of crude oil prices, last Friday(8month19day)，WTICrude oil prices have risen by more than3%, creating7month1Recently, the closing price has reached a new high, and last week, the US oil company hit over5The maximum weekly increase per month. Monday(8month22day)Oil prices have plummeted by over3%End the seven consecutive suns. Continuing to decline on Tuesday, Ninggui Asphalt is touching4500After support, it rebounded and the daily trend was slightly positive. Yesterday there was news thatOPECIran, the third largest oil producing country, has been confirmed to participate in the conference held in AlgeriaOPECMeeting. Iran did not attend the frozen production meeting in April, and it ended in failure. stay9At the end of month meeting,OPECThere is a possibility of restarting frozen production negotiations. Currently,OPECWhether a frozen production agreement can be reached has become the focus of debate. Iraq recently reached an agreement to restore the northern city of Kirkuk(Kirkuk)Export of crude oil from three oil fields. Fei Yifei believes that the crude oil asphalt sector will continue to maintain a downward trend in the near future.
　　
Single point positioning for asphalt section:
　　
　　1Upward rebound4650-4670Short on the front line, stop loss4700Look at the target below4580-4560frontline;
　　
　　2If it falls below4500Close in, stop loss4550Look at the target below4450-4430frontline;
　　
　　3As seen below4430-4410Long on the front line, stop loss4380On the target4500-4520-4550frontline.
　　
Disclaimer: The above article was written by analyst Fei Yifei, and some news and information content is excerpted from online resources. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. For more details, please consult the public account Fei Yifei. Investment carries risks, and investors operate accordingly at their own risk. When reprinting, please indicate the source