Fei Yifei:8.16Freeze production helps oil prices rise again, and the Federal Reserve releases a signal to raise interest rates

　　
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Yesterday, there was little news, the market was light, and investors were cautious in trading. The focus on the prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates continues to be hyped up by the market, and the US dollar remains volatile in the hype. Investors are focused on the Federal Reserve's announcement this week7Above the monthly meeting minutes.crude oilOn the one hand, the remarks of the Russian Energy Minister further sparked speculation in the market about frozen production. Although most analysts generally believe that the prospects for frozen production are still slim, oil prices still rise on the support of frozen production expectations3%, rose to a one month high.
　　
The US Department of Labor will release a report on Tuesday7Monthly consumer price data, according to surveys, in the United States7monthCPIExpected monthly increase is zero, below6Monthly increase0.2%The annual increase is also expected to slow down, due to the decline in oil prices. The productivity data released last week showed sluggish inflationary pressure, which strengthened the expectation that the Federal Reserve was not in a hurry to raise interest rates.
　　
According toCMEGroupofFedWatchProgram, Federal Funds RatefuturesThe trend suggests that traders expect the probability of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates next month to be only12%Last Friday was9%. Trader estimate12The probability of monthly interest rate hikes is approximately43%, lower than last Friday's45%。
　　
Analysts from Barclays Bank pointed out that although the job market outlook is good, other economic indicators in the United States still lack momentum, such as last week's zero monthly retail sales growth rate, which is a worrying sign as consumption is the main driving force of US economic growth; We do not expect a significant depreciation of the US dollar, but we expect a rebound in the US dollar to be difficult to achieve until the Federal Reserve issues a clearer interest rate hike signal.
　　
Technical analysis:
　　
SpotgoldOn the daily chart, yesterday's closing saw a small bullish trend with a long upward shadow, making it difficult for the market to move forward. Looking at the top resistanceMA10average1342-43Nearby, key support below to observe the track line in the channel1333Nearby, and at the same time, this support has been playing an extraordinary role since last week. Opening the weekly line, you can see that the point is located on the middle track of the weekly channelMA10The combination of moving averages provides strong support. Looking again4Hour, attached imagestoThe indicators have been almost worn out, and the second resistance level is roughly the same1346-47First line, also the author's official account2930-550-190The bullish high point of this round of golden cross rise will be followed by a dead cross decline, so white market operations need to wait for opportunities to rise high.
　　
In terms of Ninggui asphalt, the daily chart shows a significant increase in the three consecutive positive signs of crude oil asphalt in this round, but so far the main trend has approachedMA66Strong resistance, approximate position4460-80First line, and there was a slight lower opening today,MA5The moving average has not kept up with the rising speed, so if there is a correction in the technical aspect, it can be quite significant. CurrentlyMA5Moving average support4260-80On the front line, but also worried that the pullback may not be in place, so in terms of operation, this support can be used as a stop loss point to go long. The recommended position is as follows;
　　
Suggestions for spot gold operations:
　　
　　1First exploration above1348-1350Empty, stop loss4Point, look1338-36；
　　
　　2Callback1341-1340Long, stop loss4Points, target1343-45frontline;
　　
Suggestions for the operation of Ninggui asphalt:
　　
　　1Above4450-70Short selling, stop loss4500Break through, target4350Nearby;
　　
　　2Below4300-20Long, stop loss50Point, look4380-4400frontline;
　　
Today's Key Financial Data and Events2016year8month16Day Tuesday
　　
　　①09:30The Reserve Bank of Australia announces8Monthly Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
　　
　　②16:30britain7monthCPIMonthly rate, UK7Monthly Retail Price Index Monthly Rate
　　
　　③17:00Germany8monthZEWEconomic Prosperity Index, Eurozone8monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index6Monthly adjusted trade account
　　
　　④20:30U.S.A7After adjusting the roseCPIMonthly rate, USA7Annualized total monthly construction of new homes, USA7Total monthly construction permits
　　
　　⑤21:15U.S.A7Monthly industrial output rate
　　
⑥ The next day04:30From the United States to8month12Day and WeekAPICrude oil inventory
　　
Disclaimer: The above article was written by analyst Fei Yifei, and some news and information content is excerpted from online resources. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. There are risks involved in investment, and investors will operate accordingly at their own risk. Please indicate the source when reprinting