Fei Yifei:8.8Non agricultural data suppresses gold prices, and US interest rate hikes continue to heat up

　
　　
Last Friday20:30Published in the United States7Growth of non-agricultural employment population after seasonal adjustment25.5Ten thousand people, far exceeding expectations18Ten thousand people, the previous value has also increased from28.7Ten thousand people have reached the highest level of cultivation29.2Ten thousand people;7The monthly unemployment rate is4.9%Expected to be4.8%, previous value is4.9%； U.S.A7Monthly average hourly wage annual rate growth2.6%, consistent with expectations, previous value was2.6%. Due to significantly better than expected non farm data, spot gold and silver prices fell in the short term, and the US index jumped higher. After data release, spot goodsgoldThe intraday decline exceeded1%Silver falls below20dollar/At the ounce mark, the decline exceeded1.5%。
　　
Why do we need to pay attention to this non-agricultural issue? What is important for this non-agricultural project is not the data itself, but the meaning behind the data. The good or bad of this non farm data is related to whether the Federal Reserve will decide to raise interest rates in September. The previous Federal Reserve has already stated that it will not raise interest rates. Therefore, even if the non farm data is positive, its impact on the market will not be too volatile, mainly to lay the groundwork for the next rate hike. The significantly better than expected non farm payroll and average hourly wage growth this time will greatly boost the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates within the year.
　　
Although the employment population has increased, there are still unsatisfactory details in this data. Low employment rate from last month9.6%Ascend to9.7%This means that more labor force has to succumb to part-time work; The population engaged in part-time jobs due to economic reasons584Ten thousand people have risen to594Ten thousand people. In addition, the number of people who give up searching due to the inability to find a job has increased to59.1Ten thousand people5Month high.
　　
The impact of data on the Federal Reserve9Whether the month will take action remains ambiguous, and the manufacturing sector remains weak. However, market participants are still overall optimistic. Some analysts suggest that if8The monthly employment data is still so strong, so we will raise interest rates within this year2The likelihood of this will greatly increase. Of course, non farm data alone may not be enough to convince the Federal Reserve to abandon its wait-and-see strategy.
　　
The impact of non farm payroll on the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike this time -——
　　
Before the release of non-farm data, the most optimistic predictions from Wall Street institutions did not anticipate it7The monthly increase in non-agricultural population can soar to25.5Ten thousand people, and the average hourly wage rate has increased to0.3%, and5Month and6The monthly non farm payroll data has all been revised up - almost all of the good news will undoubtedly strengthen investor confidence in the Federal Reserve12The longing and confidence for a monthly interest rate hike.9The probability of monthly interest rate hikes varies from18%Ascend to24%，12month46.3%Next year3month51.7%。
　　
Non farm data is robust, and the US economy is doing better than people expected. Employment performance supports recent interest rate hikes, but considering that the Federal Reserve has never raised interest rates before an election in history, coupled with trade account performance, it is possible that the second quarter will be affectedGDPOvercoming growth rate1%Level, so Fei Yifei Tencent2930-550-190It is believed that although non-agricultural sectors have performed well, the probability of a rate hike in September is very low.12Monthly interest rate hikes may be even greater.
　　
Continuous non-agricultural data2A stronger than expected month has severely suppressed the gold price, but global monetary policy remains loose, supporting the gold price to enter a period of sideways consolidation. Due to7The monthly non farm payroll data is strong, and some people have anticipated that the Federal Reserve may start as early as9Monthly interest rate hikes. However, although the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates early, other central banks will continue to loosen their policies, believing that this will at least provide some support for the gold market. But if the gold price wants to break through1375-1377The US dollar may require new favorable factors to emerge. So it is believed that the prices of gold and silver may consolidate sideways this week, and the specific operation is relatively stable at a high altitude.
　　
Technical aspect:
　　
At present, from the perspective of technical form, the gold daily line has successfully suppressed the momentum of gold price counterattack and breaking through on the upper track, while the middle track1340Supported by short-term support, it is expected that the bearish trend will continue for a short period of time under such a heavy shadow. At least before the new interest rate hike expectation comes out, the evening non-agricultural data will be gradually digested, and both indicators in the attached chart have successfully formed a dead cross,4The opening of the main Bollinger band on the hourly cycle also indicates that the space below needs to be further opened, starting from1310Starting from nearby, to1368The support for the pullback from nearby high points is focused on the golden ratio line1332-1330On the front line, if the US dollar data shows weakness, gold will rebound at this position in conjunction with technical gains. Therefore, in terms of operation strategy, you can first focus on the following1340、1333Position of support, rebound from above and pay attention to1353、1365Resistance. Maintain interval operation is sufficient;
　　
Suggestions for Reference Operations of Spot Gold
　　
　　1Gold price1340-1342Empty order entry, stop loss4Points, target1335-1332.
　　
　　2Gold price1328-1330Multiple orders entering, stop loss4Points, target1335-1340.
　　
Ninggui Asphalt was not significantly affected by non-agricultural employment data. The strong non-agricultural data stimulated the US index to rebound from a low level, thereby suppressing asphalt prices. Asphalt rebounded slightly and stabilized in the late trading session. From the perspective of asphalt technology, the decline of asphalt is located in the middle track of the Bollinger Belt3900Stopped on the first line, followed by a strong rebound in the middle track, breaking through directly4000approximation4050; The resultingMA5andMA10Passing through the middle track, the Bollinger Bands also show a golden cross upward trend. After the release of non-agricultural data, the situation is slightly weak, and attention still needs to be paid to the upper level4050、4200The suppression of position, if the market stabilizes4200The bullish and bearish trend will be significantly broken, and we need to pay close attention to it below3950-3930Short term support, followed by recent low levels4780The support of position also maintains the interval as the main focus in operation.
　　
Recommended operation for spot asphalt (Ninggui asphalt)
　　
　　1Asphalt4070-4050Empty order entry, stop loss40Points, target4000-3980.
　　
　　2Asphalt3960-3970Multiple orders entering, stop loss40Points, target4050-4070.
　　
Today's important financial data:
　　
　　10:00China7Monthly trade account(RMB100mn)
　　
　　10:00China7Monthly trade account in US dollars(USD100mn)
　　
　　14:00Germany6Monthly industrial output rate after quarterly adjustment
　　
　　14:30France7monthBOFBusiness confidence index
　　
　　15:15Switzerland7monthCPIMonthly rate
　　
　　16:30eurozone8monthSentixInvestor confidence index
　　
　　22:00U.S.A7Monthly Employment Market Condition Index(LMCI)