Fei Yifei: Suggestions for operating spot gold asphalt after non-agricultural activities

　　
　　
United States7Monthly increase in non-agricultural employment25.5Ten thousand people, better than expected1810000 people.7Monthly unemployment rate4.9%, worse than4.8%Expectations, and6The monthly data remains unchanged.6The newly added non-agricultural employment population in the month has increased from28.7Up to 10000 people29.2Ten thousand people. United States7Monthly average hourly wage increased year-on-year2.6%Consistent with expectations. Before the data was released, a large number of authoritative institutions made statements that if the labor market remained strong, the Federal Reserve may9Monthly interest rate hikes. The specific values are set at20Ten thousand, which means if today's non-agricultural data is higher than20Ten thousand, then the Federal Reserve will retain9The possibility of a monthly interest rate hike. And if the non-agricultural data is much lower than20Ten thousand people, then the Federal Reserve may continue to adopt a wait-and-see attitude; Although the Federal Reserve will still tend to raise interest rates this year, it will not be in a hurry to take action in the absence of other positive economic data. And Fei Yifei reminds investors,7Monthly average hourly wage in the United States increased year-on-year2.6%Keep in2009The fastest growth rate since the beginning of the year. This indicates that workers are becoming more scarce and expensive, leading to a slowdown in recruitment. Higher salaries often lead to higher inflation. This is one of the main reasons why the non farm payroll report has received so much attention from the Federal Reserve.
　　
Although the unemployment rate remains stable due to increased employment, the significantly better than expected increase in non farm payroll combined with average hourly wage growth will greatly boost the expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates this year. After the release of non farm payroll data, the US dollar index10Annual US Treasury yields, US stocksfuturesQuickly pull up,goldShort term sharp drop to1341.6Silver once fell below20US dollars. Ninggui asphalt has a mediocre response, with a slight rebound4050Near.
　　
Previously, due to5-6The monthly non farm employment data has fluctuated sharply, and the market has slowed down expectations of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. Meanwhile, due to the7month29The second quarter of the United States announced todayGDPThe initial value was significantly lower than expected, and expectations further cooled down. Federal Reserve Number Three and New York Fed Chairman Dudley（WilliamDudley）In the speech, it was stated that although it is currently excluded2016The possibility of raising interest rates before the end of the year is still too early, but the risks facing the US economy tend to be downward, and the potential impact of Brexit from the UK forms a downward risk, which may have more negative impacts than positive ones. In addition, the US dollar is also strengthening, so delaying the change in current interest rates is relatively safe. Currently, due to better than expected data, the market's probability of raising interest rates has rebounded.
　　
After reading today's heavyweight data, our focus has returned to the technical form. Currently, the daily bullish trend of spot gold has successfully suppressed the momentum of gold price counterattack and breaking through levels, with a medium track1340With short-term support, it is expected that the bearish trend will continue in the short term under such a heavy shadow. At least before new interest rate hikes are expected, the evening non farm data will be gradually digested, and both indicators in the attached chart have successfully formed a dead cross,4The opening of the main Bollinger band on the hourly cycle also indicates that the space below needs to be further opened, starting from1310Starting from nearby, to1368The support for the pullback from nearby high points is focused on the golden ratio line1332-1330On the front line, if the US dollar data shows weakness next week, gold will rebound at this position in conjunction with technical gains. Therefore, in terms of operation strategy, you can first focus on the following1340-1332Position of support, rebound from above and pay attention to1352-1365Resistance.
　　
Specific suggestions for making orders:
　　
　　1，1343-1340Long on the front line, stop loss1337, look at the goal1348-1350
　　
　　2Upward rebound1352Short selling, stop loss1356, look at the goal1345
　　
　　3If the upper part rebounds strongly and breaks through the level1356wait for1360Short selling nearby can also be done in advance, with stop loss options available1365Stop surplus1350If a movable stop loss is attached, hold attention1340profit
　　
Ninggui Asphalt:
　　
　　1，4050Short selling, stop loss4100, look at the goal3960-3930
　　
Focus on data next Monday:
　　
　　16:30eurozone8monthSentixInvestor confidence index front value1.7
　　
　　22:00U.S.A7Monthly Employment Market Condition Index(LMCI)Previous value-1.9
　　
Also, this Sunday16:00China will be announced7monthforeign exchangereserve(USD100mn)Previous value32052, also need to pay attention to
　　
Disclaimer: The above article was written by analyst Fei Yifei. Some news and information content is excerpted from online resources. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. For more details, please consult Fei Yifeiq：2930550190Spot gold and silver ordering experience group:166，029，930Group entry verification code:FYF(Required). Investment carries risks, and investors operate accordingly at their own risk. If reprinted, please indicate the source