Fei Yifei: The market view leans towards the dove faction, and the resolution is difficult to change the current situation

　
　　
Thursday Beijing Time（7month27Day)02:00Federal Open Market Commission（FOMC）The interest rate decision will be announced and a policy statement will be issued. From the earlier public statements of Federal Reserve officials and economists' expectations, it is almost certain that the Federal Reserve will remain silent. So for7What are the other focuses of the monthly meeting?
　　
Federal Reserve observers and market participants have become accustomed to the recentFOMCThe mode of the meeting is to maintain the policy unchanged, with almost no suspense. Federal Reserve policymakers are striving to make "possibility meetings" (i.e. meetings where the Federal Reserve will seriously consider changing its policy stance) a more common trend, but the sluggish economic performance makes this wish difficult to achieve.
　　
　　7The month is unlikely to become the last 'impossible meeting' of the year, but the lack of novelty is expected to come to an end soon. The US economy is strengthening11After the presidential election in January, the Federal Reserve will enter a new era, and there will be reasons to take more frequent interest rate actions. The market's expectation of the possibility of taking action at each meeting will increase,2017The number of 'possible meetings' in the year will greatly increase, but this year7The month will pass very peacefully.
　　
Here is the current oneFOMCFour highlights of the meeting:
　　
Interest rate: The federal funds rate is expected to remain at its current level this week0.25%-0.50%. Based on interest ratesfuturesDisplay,7The possibility of a monthly interest rate hike is unlikely10%Wait until2017year3The monthly probability will only reach50%Or above. Compared to the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations, the market's view is very dovey, and policymakers are dissatisfied with this.
　　
Rate hike schedule: Although the latest dot matrix chart from the Federal Reserve shows that interest rates will be raised within the year50Basis points, butBIEconomicsIt is expected that interest rates will only be raised once within the year, at12Month. If6The positive trend of the monthly employment report is expected to continue in the short term, and it is also possible to raise interest rates before the election. However, the overall trend shows that employment growth will tend to be moderate. Economic uncertainty still exists, and the Federal Reserve wants to avoid elections, so it is not expected to9Month or11Monthly tightening policy.
　　
Economic evaluation: It is expected that the Federal Reserve will only need to make minor adjustments to the economic evaluation to mainly reflect the increased confidence in the continuous improvement of the job market. In previous policy statements, the Federal Reserve's description was that "economic activity seems to have accelerated" and "household spending has strengthened", and these descriptions are still accurate. However, given that6The performance of the monthly non farm report requires revision to at least some extent to phrases such as "the pace of improvement in the job market has slowed down" and "employment growth rate has decreased". The Federal Reserve may say that compared to the beginning of the year, the pace of employment remains stable, but has slightly slowed down. The previously mentioned sustained strength of the real estate market, weak fixed investment by enterprises, and a decrease in the drag on net exports can all remain unchanged.
　　
Inflation assessment: The Federal Reserve's assessment of inflation and inflation expectations may remain unchanged. Between this and the last meeting, the core inflation rate in the United States remained generally stable, and long-term inflation expectations continued to hover near historical lows,5The annual forward breakeven inflation rate remains unchanged and below the Federal Reserve's target. However, Federal Reserve officials may still believe that inflation rates will eventually return2%The goal of.
　　
However, it should be noted that this timeFOMCThere will be no press conference or new economic expectations released during the meeting, thereforeFOMCThe channels for transmitting information are limited, and their economic and financial expectations are limited9Only released in months, covering2019Year.
　　
Here are the views of major investment banking institutions:
　　
Barclays（Barclay）EconomistsMichaelGapenFederal Reserve officials will wait until8month5Daily release7After the monthly non farm employment report, public speeches were used to suggest a gradual rate hike. At the same time, the bank also believes that the Federal Reserve will not7month26-27The policy meeting on the day hinted at the next interest rate hike. Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen8The appearance in Jackson Hall in January is more likely a time to change the tone.
　　
BNP Paribas（BNPParibas）EconomistsSamLynton-BrownThe Federal Reserve7The monthly statement is too early to send a very hawkish signal; No, just9The monthly interest rate resolution sends a strong signal.FOMCThe post meeting statement may only provide a 'slightly optimistic assessment'.
　　
Bank of America Merrill Lynch（BofAMerrillLynch）EconomistsMichaelHansonPoint out that the Federal Reserve will retain9Monthly interest rate hikes may but will not send a "clear signal" policy statement may mention "generally positive economic data", indicating that policymakers are still concerned about inflation/The mere mention of the next meeting as a global risk will be a "surprising and obvious hawkish signal" for the market.
　　
Kaitou Macro（CapitalEconomics）AnalystPaulAshworthState that the Federal Reserve9There is still a clear possibility of a monthly interest rate hike,FOMCIt's unlikely to happen7month26-27At the meeting on the day of 'creating any accidents', there will be no7Monthly commitment9Monthly interest rate hikes. The policy statement should acknowledge the second quarterGDPThe rebound in growth, recent strong consumption, and6Monthly employment growth rebounded.
　　
JPMorgan Chase（J.P.Morgan）EconomistsMichaelFeroliIt is said that the Federal Reserve7month27The meeting statement on the day will reiterate forward-looking guidance that future policy actions depend on economic data and continue to emphasize progress in inflation. This will send a message:FOMCNot in a hurry to raise interest rates; Most likely in line with JPMorgan Chase12Opinions on raising interest rates in the month.
　　
　　RenaissanceMacroeconomistNeilDuttaexpress,FOMCThe statement will be more optimistic at the beginning, reflecting the improvement of economic data; It is estimated that there will be little change in other aspects,FOMCWe will reiterate our support for a gradual increase in the federal funds rate in the economic outlook. Although the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower its risk assessment, it can soften its focus on monitoring inflation indicators and the global economy/The wording regarding the financial situation. Decision makers will not provide any hints about raising interest rates at the next meeting, but they will not close it either9The door to monthly interest rate hikes.
　　
At present, investors in the entire market are paying attention to this news, and after several trading days of consolidation, gold prices have risen during the US market period, breaking the previous continuous trend2Suppression position for trading days1325Up to1329Above. Fei Yifei's analysis suggests that although the rise in the evening broke through the recent pressure level of gold prices, there is still resistance near the central trajectory of the Bollinger belt above,goldThe brief rebound cannot be seen as a signal of impending reversal, and it is more likely that investors are still not optimistic7The monthly interest rate hike has reflected this sentiment in the market, but it should be noted that the recent economic data of the Federal Reserve has performed well, especially in the second half of the year, which is often a time of strong economic performance by the Federal Reserve. Although the uncertainty of global risks still exists, this impact will eventually make concessions as the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike advances. That is to say, even if gold rebounds in the future,1375It is also difficult to break through the previous high, but on the other hand, the sharp rise in the early stage has not made the retreat of gold prices thorough enough, even if the gold price has changed from1375Withdrawal, although already in place in the short term, as the impact of interest rate resolutions subsides, whether it is an increase or a decrease, there is still a high probability of a deep adjustment waiting for gold after this.
　　
Disclaimer: The above article was written by Fei Yifei, Chief Analyst of Luanjia Jinzheng Team. Some news and information content has been extracted from online resources. The article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. For more information, please consult Fei Yifeiq：2930550190Spot gold and silver ordering experience group:166，029，930Group entry verification code:FYF(Required). Investment carries risks, and investors operate accordingly at their own risk. If reprinted, please indicate the source