Fei Yifei:7.25 黄金延续震荡回落，油价持续萎靡不振

　　
　　目前，随着全球降息大背景和美国货币政策可能在年底前收紧，这两股力量正在金市角力。不过，周末德国发生多起恶性袭击事件，可能促使当地地缘政治风险升温，为金价提供一定支撑。同时，尽管美联储本周预计将不会改变利率，但市场将聚焦会后声明，以从中获取后续政策动向的线索。笔者费一菲认为，6The strong performance of monthly non farm payroll data may lead to some hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve.
　　
　　crude oil价格亚盘小幅上扬，但仍未脱离上周五触及的两个月低位。近期油价持续震荡走低，因市场重新开始忧虑全球原油供应过剩，同时美元强劲以及美国活跃钻机数连续第四周上升，助长了油价的下行压力。此外，上周五美元升至逾四个月高位，也降低原油需求，因以美元计价的原油对持有欧元和其他货币的投资者来说更昂贵。不过，由于利比亚国家石油公司的负责人反对政府和地方武装就重新开放主要港口达成的协议，利比亚增加原油出口的希望受到重击。
　　
At the end of the Asian market on Monday,goldThe price continued to fluctuate and fall, with a sharp drop after the morning opening, which suppressed market expectations for the upcoming monetary policy statement or hawkish sentiment this week. Since the release of non farm payroll data this month, the overall performance of the US economy has been good, undoubtedly providing necessary data support for Federal Reserve decision-makers to raise interest rates. Since last Friday's announcement of US drilling numbers, there have been consecutive4周上升以来，油价持续萎靡不振。早间开盘后原油市场卖压并未显著缓解。
　　
The gold daily chart shows a clear upward and downward trend, with two attempts to explore the market since then1375After resistance, it falls back, and the double top pattern suppresses the market. The short-term upper limit of the daily chart is affected by30Daily moving average1320The suppression is quite obvious, and the Bollinger Bands open and descend,KThe line is located below the middle rail of the Bollinger Belt,MA5andMA10Starting to turn downwards, other short-term moving averages are moving upwards, as shown in the attached figureMACDGreen kinetic energy release, dual line parallel operation0Above the axis, random indicatorsKDJThe golden cross is located at50Above; from4Looking at the hourly line, the opening of the Bollinger Bands is downward,KThe line is located below the middle track of the Bollinger Belt, as shown in the attached figureMACDDouble line located at0轴下方平行运行，绿色动能柱减小。操作笔者费一菲建议高空为主。部分做单策略如下：
　　
　　1Rebound1323-1325Short selling, stop loss1328Above, eye1315-1313frontline
　　
　　2First exploration below1311-1313Long, stop loss3.8Point by point, short-term view of the target1321-1323frontline
　　
　　3If there is an unexpected strong drop below1303, rebound1308Short selling, stop loss5Points, target1295-1290
　　
Asphalt prices have plummeted since then4300Since the checkpoint, there has been continuous weak fluctuations. From the weekly chart, it appears that the current price has fallen below the top rectangular consolidation platform, with the lowest price approaching late Friday4200At the critical point, however, there was soon a bottoming out rebound. From the weekly closing situation, asphalt prices have been under pressure since the decline, and the moving average has been falling. The current upper moving average system is mainly under pressure4380附近位置，这也是本周沥青价格的起跌点位置，关注公众号费一菲团队预计在这段时间行情仍然很难打破这里的压力，在未来一周若沥青能够反弹至均线粘合位置，仍然可以去做空沥青。当前沥青收线极度弱势，投资者可以关注空头延续力度，操作上可以维持逢高做空思路。做空价格选择前一周平台支撑反压位4280/4300Position, can be leaned against below4200Support nearby to buy more asphalt. The partial ordering strategy is as follows:
　　
　　宁贵沥青上方4280-4300Short selling, stop loss35Points, target4220-4200frontline
　　
　　宁贵沥青初次试探4180-4200Long, stop loss30Points, target4260-4280frontline
　　
　　以上文章由湖北乾贯丰首席分析师费一菲撰写，文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议，详情可咨询费一菲q2930550190Spot gold and silver ordering experience group:166，029，930Group entry verification code:fyf(必填）。投资有风险，投资者谨慎操作，转载请注明出处。