Fei Yifei:6.28Afternoon Review of UK's Exit from Europe Triggered a huge market shock, with some people happy and others worried

For the UK economic market, it is simply a nightmare, and for the eurozone, it has also brought catastrophic impacts in the short term;But for foreign countriesgoldFor investors in commodities such as silver, this is an excellent opportunity for short-term operations.

1、 Fundamentals:

Last trading day Monday(6month27day)Gold prices have risen for the second consecutive day, reaching their highest intraday level1335The US dollar, as the impact of Brexit continues to ferment, is suppressing further sharp declines in European and American stock markets and boosting safe haven sentiment. United StatesWTIcrude oilfuturesSignificant decline, affected by the strengthening of the US dollar and risk aversion, falling to near3The low point for months. At the end of the US market, US crude oil futures closed lower1.31USD, down2.8%, received at45.83dollar/Bucket.WTICrude oil seems to continue its decline as shown on the daily chart,20The daily moving average has turned downward above the current level, whileRSIIndicator in40Nearby accelerating decline, kinetic energy index100Consolidate below the front line. International spot gold Tuesday(6month28day)At the beginning of the Asian market, there was a slight decline1320Near the US dollar, the trend is downward. Ninggui asphalt received yesterday4497RMB/Tons. Today's opening4484Location, currently in4520A first-line upward trend.

Tuesday(6month28day)To be announced in the UK6monthCBIRetail sales difference, US Q1 actualGDPYearly quarterly rate final value and other data. In addition to monitoring the performance of US economic data, investors also need to pay attention to the speeches of European Central Bank President Draghi and other executive members of the central bank.

2、 Message surface:

① British Prime Minister Cameron stated that the referendum has produced a decisive result, and the focus of cabinet discussions is on how to take responsibility and understand this matter. This statement excludes the possibility of a second referendum in the UK.

② Global8Major GoldETFThe monitoring data shows that as of2016year6month27Day, Global8Big GoldETFsThe total holding amount is1487.498Tons, increased from the previous trading day13.518Tons. Last Friday, the gold exchange traded fund(ETF)Significant increase in holdings43Billion US dollars, achieving the largest daily increase in four years. On the same daySPDRGoldTrustGLDAn increase in gold holdings2%Touching3High position in recent years.

③ Last Friday(6month24day)According to published data, the United States5Monthly durable goods orders have decreased compared to the previous month2.2%, estimated to decrease0.5%, the previous value was corrected to increase3.3%. University of Michigan6The final value of the monthly US Consumer Confidence Index is93.5, estimated to be94.0，6The initial value of the month is94.3，5The end of month value is94.7。

④ Monday6month27The United States announced on the day6monthMarkitService industryPMIThe initial value is stable at51.3by2014year12The lowest since the beginning of the month indicates that although the US service industry has recorded expansion, the expansion speed is not as expected, which may be unfavorable for the US to return to the track of interest rate hikes this year in the context of Brexit. The data suggests that the economic rebound since the first quarter may be limited to4Since then, economic growth has slowed down again, and the potential economic growth rate in the United States in the second quarter may only be1%。

⑤ 【 Federal Reserve may remain inactive this year 】 US federal funds rate futures suggest: Federal Reserve7The probability of monthly interest rate hikes is zero, and the probability of interest rate cuts is8.0%The probability of maintaining a constant is92.0%;Federal Reserve9The probability of monthly interest rate hikes is zero, and the probability of interest rate cuts is20.9%The probability of maintaining a constant is79.1%;Federal Reserve11The probability of monthly interest rate hikes is zero, and the probability of interest rate cuts is18.8%The probability of maintaining a constant is79.1%;Federal Reserve12The probability of monthly interest rate hikes is7.9%The probability of interest rate reduction is18.8%The probability of maintaining a constant is73.3%

3、 Technical aspect:

On the daily level of spot gold, overnight gold prices continue to rise, and20Japan and Japan50The daily moving average has once again crossed the golden cross, but in the past two trading daysKLong shadows were recorded online, indicating some resistance above. On indicatorsMACDThe red kinetic energy column expands, with the double line golden cross pointing upwards,KDJThe indicators have bottomed out and rebounded, with medium-term risks leaning upwards.4HAt the level,MACDThere is a risk of a high dead cross in the dual line, and the short-term gold price may be adjusted, but as long as the gold price remains stable1306/1315With the support of the US dollar, the market can continue to rise in the future. At present, the initial resistance is located at1335as well as1358US dollars. Preliminary support in1315as well as1300USD.

Spot gold trading strategy:

　　1、1335Short nearby, stop loss4Points, target1322Break the position to see1310nearby

　　2、1310/1308Long, stop loss1305, look at the goal8-10USD is sufficient

Ninggui Asphalt:

International crude oil4On the hourly chart, the momentum indicator strongly declines near the oversold level, whileRSIIndicator in32Nearby consolidation, due to20Daily moving average at100and200The accelerated decline below the daily moving average is consistent with the longer-term outlook. If it falls below45.00The critical level may trigger speculative stop loss positions, which will further trigger a deep drop in oil prices.

Overnight spot asphalt continued its downward trend on the daily chart and then closed at a medium negative line, with a two-day decline of450Point, short term supported by4400At the checkpoint, it is expected that there is still room for asphalt prices to fall in the short term, and there is no sign of bottoming out. On the daily line, there are signs of opening up in Bollinger, and the short term is supported by Bollinger's lower track, while the upward trend is under pressure10Daily moving average,MacdThe indicator has a high dead cross and is down, making it suitable for short selling at high points,4On the hour line, Brin spoke up,KThe line shows a bearish downward trend, and the short-term is under pressure10Daily moving average,MACDShort selling volume is suitable for pushing up and selling short. Overall, asphalt operates in a regular downward channel in the short term, with support for the downward trend4350Nearby, short term supported by6month17Near the daily low point, it is suitable to short sell on high before a bottoming signal appears, and focus on the white market rebound4550Suppress nearby, follow below4410and4350Support, adopt cautious operation within the interval, and reasonably control risks. It is recommended to learn about Fei Yifei online.

Ninggui Asphalt Operation Suggestions:

　　1Rebound4600Short nearby, stop loss40Points, target4450-4400;

　　2、4400Long nearby, stop loss40Points, target4500-4550, breaking the limit and holding additional positions;

4、 Focus:

Today's key focus on financial data and events:2016year6month28Day Tuesday

　　16:00European Central Bank President Draghi(MarioDraghi)Speech on the Future of the International Monetary and Financial System at the Central Bank Forum of the European Central Bank.

　　18:00britain6monthCBIRetail sales difference

　　20:30US Q1 ActualGDPYearly quarterly rate final value

　　20:30US Q1 CorePCEThe final value of the annualized quarterly rate of the price index

　　21:00U.S.A4monthS&amp/CS20Annual rate of housing price index in major cities

　　22:00U.S.A6Monthly Conference Chamber Consumer Confidence Index

　　22:00U.S.A6Monthly Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index

The above content was written by Fei Yifei, Chief Analyst specially invited by Hubei Qianguanfeng,The content of the article is for reference only. Investment carries risks,Investors operate with caution,Take the risk at your own risk.