[Luan] Fei Yifei:6month23The decision to withdraw from Europe in the morning is uncertain, and interest rate hikes are out of reach

　　　
Message face:
　　
　　6month22On the evening of the th10Yellen's speech is once again similar to practicing Tai Chi, giving people a feeling of being at a loss after reporting good news. Yellen mentioned in his speech that the US economy has greatly improved, but at the same time, he also mentioned that economic growth has always been disappointing, for unknown reasons. Yellen also stated that if the economy makes progress, the Federal Reserve will gradually raise interest rates. The Federal Reserve is considering further interest rate hikes if conditions are met. It makes me feel that speaking lacks confidence, and raising interest rates is even more unattainable.
　　
The Brexit referendum will be held on Thursday Beijing time(6month23day)14:00The voting officially begins on Friday05:00All voting points will be closed, and the results of the first group of votes are expected to be07:00Understood, the final set of voting results will be announced14:00Left and right announcement.
　　
Polls show that the outcome of Thursday's referendum remains unpredictable. According to the gambling merchant's mandatory distribution(Betfair)The odds of a British referendum staying in the EU are75%. And in terms of legislatorsJoCoxThe probability of staying in Europe last Thursday before being attacked and killed is approximately60%. fromOddscheckerA compiled indicator showing the flow of betting funds shows that the possibility of Brexit in the UK has shifted from6month14Of43%Reduced to25.5%. Released on TuesdaySurvationbyIGThe survey conducted shows that the support rate for "staying in Europe" is45%The support rate of the "Brexit" camp is44%. And the latest UK research agency released recentlyOpiniumPolls show that,44%The respondents are in favor of studying in Europe in the UK,45%Advocate for Brexit.
　　
American Energy Data Association(EIA)According to data released on Wednesday, last week in the United Statescrude oilInventory has decreased for the fifth consecutive week, but the decrease was smaller than expected, with gasoline and distillate inventories increasing.EIAAnnouncement, as of6month17During the current week, US crude oil inventories decreased91.7Ten thousand barrels, to5.3063Billion barrels, market estimate for decrease167.1Ten thousand barrels. US crude oil delivery site Cushing inventory reduction128Ten thousand barrels, to6,518Ten thousand barrels.EIAData shows an increase in refinery operating rates1.1Percentage points, to91.3%Increase in daily refining capacity18.8Ten thousand barrels, to1,651Ten thousand barrels. Last week, gasoline inventories in the United States increased62.7Ten thousand barrels, market estimate for decrease32.6Ten thousand barrels. Increased inventory of distillate oil in the United States15.1Ten thousand barrels, market estimate for increase25.7Ten thousand barrels. Last week, the daily import volume of crude oil in the United States increased81.7Ten thousand barrels, for2015year4The largest weekly increase since the beginning of the month.
　　
After the data was released, oil prices shifted from rising to falling,WTICrude oil falls below50dollar/Bucket level, refreshing daily low to49.16dollar/Bucket. Brent crude oil subsequently fell below50dollar/At the barrel level, both experienced a decline of over1%。
　　
Technical aspect:
　　
　　gold：
　　
Overnight spot gold maintenance1270-1260The range fluctuated for a whole day, and finally a small bearish line was collected. Currently, we are testing again1260At the critical juncture, if we can break through the level of gold in the short term, we will face a cliff like sharp decline, as shown in the main pictureMA5UnderpassMA10Dead fork down,STOHigh dead cross downward, follow below1260,1250Support level, while resistance level remains the overnight rebound high point1270On the front line, looking at the daily chart, gold fluctuates slightly bearish.
　　
Ninggui Asphalt:
　　
Ninggui Asphalt collects an upper and lower lead column overnight, with a near daily wave amplitude200Point, from4865High and low probing4660Points, on the main mapbollDuring the leveling operation, the asphalt once pierced through the support of the middle rail and quickly corrected and rebounded. Currently, it is operating within the middle and upper rail areas,MA5On the moving averageMA10as well asMA30Golden cross in operation, short-term attention4700Gate support position, with upper resistance located at4800，MACDDead cross downward, green energy slightly weakened, daily asphalt fluctuates slightly, maintaining operation4700-4800High selling and low slag in the interval.
　　
Single point trading for the gold portion:
　　
　　1Step back for the first time1260Long on the front line, stop loss3Points, target1266-1268frontline
　　
　　2, rebound1268-1270Short selling, stop loss1273, Objective1260-1258-1252Take a look down one by one
　　
Single point positioning for Ninggui asphalt section:
　　
　　1,4700Long, stop loss40Point, target4800
　　
　　2,4800Short selling, stop loss40Point, target4700
　　
Today's follow:
　　
　　14:00UK Holds Brexit Referendum
　　
　　15:00France6Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value
　　
　　15:30Germany6Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value
　　
　　16:00eurozone6Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value
　　
　　20:30From the United States to6month18Number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week
　　
　　21:45U.S.A6monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value
　　
　　22:00U.S.A5Annualized total monthly new home sales, US5Monthly consultation chamber leading indicator monthly rate
　　
Disclaimer: The above content was written by Fei Yifei, a specially invited analyst of Hubei Qianguanfeng Trading Co., Ltd,The content of the article is for reference only. Investment carries risks,Investors operate with caution,Take the risk at your own risk.