Diagram6.21】Is Brexit just a false alarm? US stock market rose continuously, ranking first2Day, the high level of the pound is on standby

Renowned financial blogZerohedgeAccording to the article, GBP Tuesday（6month21At one point in the day, it rose to1.4783For British Prime Minister Cameron2The highest level since the date of the Brexit referendum was determined in the month. Pro European female legislatorsJo CoxThe death from the attack can be considered an important turning point in the counterattack of public opinion polls, and the pound has been around since last Thursday（6month16The low point reached in the day1.4013It has already risen at most770Points.





However, in theSurvationThe institution is an index gambling companyIGAfter the investigation was released, the pound and euro fell in response, and the pound reversed its earlier gains within the day. Polls show that support for Brexit has increased from6month18Of42%Ascend to44%The camp staying in Europe only leads by a slight margin, with a support rate of45%。


Although from a statistical perspective, both parties45%And44%The support rate is almost evenly matched, but it marks the success of the stay in Europe camp in the poll released on Saturday3%The leading advantage is being eroded.


However, Jin Hui Finance and Economics wrote an article yesterday introducing that there is now a theory that the Brexit referendum may just be a perfect hype, and a Brexit referendum is inevitable. Cameron's Conservative Party has always had a strong "Euroscepticism" and often talks about leaving the EU. It will be difficult for Cameron to deal with these Eurosceptics within the party.


But ultimately, the UK will not leave the EU. The financial market has always believed that the UK will stay in the EU, and when there is a disagreement between market expectations and opinion polls, the market often laughs the last. The Brexit referendum is scheduled6month23It is not the first time that there has been a disagreement between public opinion polls and market expectations in a vote related to sovereignty. In at least three other precedents, market expectations ultimately proved to be more credible.Foreign exchange gold


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Deutsche Bank（Deutsche Bank）AnalystJim ReidThis week, a similar viewpoint was also expressed - that is, from historical experience, polls before such events have never been entirely reliable, and if the overall trend of polls shows a five to five split, then the possibility of staying in Europe will have the upper hand![/blockquote]

As polls show that the "stay in Europe" camp is gaining support, gambling companies and gamblers are becoming more convinced that British voters will choose to stay in Europe.LadbrokesThe latest report shows that the odds of "staying in Europe" have decreased1/4, implying proximity80%The probability of. And before that24During the hour, among all the gamblers in the referendum, there were95%The bet on the referendum result is to refuse to withdraw from Europe.
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