Li Wanxi:6month15(Wednesday)EIAThe possibility of a US interest rate hike is slim, with a bullish layout of gold and silver

Li Wanxi:6month15(Wednesday)EIAThe possibility of a US interest rate hike is slim,goldSilver Bull Layout

Early morning Beijing time this Thursday2Point, the globally anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate resolution is about to be released.

Although in the4In the minutes of the month's Federal Reserve meeting, the Federal Reserve gave a more hawkish tone, but the author believes that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates this month is very low, for two reasons:

　　1.The non farm employment data came as a surprise.

One of the most important functions of the Federal Reserve as the central bank of the United States is to promote employment.

One of the important reasons why the Federal Reserve has not taken a rate hike in previous interest rate resolutions is the poor performance of the US job market.

However, the non farm payroll data released in May is truly surprising, as only3.8Although the impact of the strike was one of the reasons for the significantly lower than expected data, after this data was released, global investors have greatly discounted the possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.

The market had originally expected that the Federal Reserve would6The expectation of a monthly interest rate hike is expected to rise, which can be aided by the subsequent announcement of the United States5Monthly Employment Market Condition Index(LMCI)Redemption of a city, but6month6The United States of Sunrise Stove5Monthly Employment Market Condition Index(LMCI)It is also a significant decline, causing6The possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in the month is even more slim.

　　2.The risk of Brexit in the UK continues to rise.

This month, the UK23A referendum on Brexit will be held in the near future. Once the UK successfully withdraws from the EU, there is no doubt that its export trade will be greatly impacted. Without the protection of the EU, trade with EU member states will be hindered by tax barriers and trade protectionism, which may pose a huge challenge to the UK's export trade.

The Federal Reserve is likely to be cautious in the face of any of the above risk events and will not easily take interest rate hikes. Moreover, these risk events have precisely intensified the risk aversion towards gold and silver, especially the potential chain reaction of the UK's exit from Europe.

At present, the risk of the global bond market has increased sharply. Once the UK really withdraws from Europe, it is very likely to burst the global bond market foam, causing similar08The global economic crisis of the year, and08At the time of the global economic crisis, which coincided with the most prominent performance of gold and silver hedging attributes, Jia Li Wanxi's strength called for a single prestige group:js6486So it is basically impossible for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this month, and the increasing risk of Brexit in the UK will further increase gold and silver prices.

At present, it appears that silver3740, Gold1303By no means the top of the gold and silver trend, the bull market of gold and silver is far from over.

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　　1.the price of silver3600Long on the front line Stop loss30Points target3650

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Spot gold operation strategy:

　　1.Gold price1280Long on the front line Stop loss3Points Target View1288

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