AThe truth about the stock surge: Southern FTSE ChinaA50ETFThe Mystery Behind Data

On Monday, a news about the arrival of foreign "reinforcements" went viral on social media, and even more so on TuesdayAA sharp rise in stocks.

Southern Dongying disclosed that it has received5600After a net subscription of 10000 units, Southern FTSE ChinaA50 ETF30Received over2Net subscription of billions of fund units, current size of the fund18.35One billion yuan, which means that the newly added scale accounts for more than the total fund size10%. And today, Southern Rich Times ChinaA50 ETFObtained again1.85Net subscription of billions of fund units, which means there will be approximately38.3Billion foreign investors are borrowing this funds to flow into the Chinese stock market.

Southern FTSE ChinaA50ETFIt's a tracking teamAThe largest overseas stockRQFIIETFFunds, with two consecutive days of large net subscriptions, seem to highlight the impact of overseas funds onAStocks can be includedMSCIConfidence in international indices. Goldman Sachs stated yesterday that China's latest regulations and interpretations regarding stock suspension and securities equity owners have been improvedMSCIIndex inclusionAThe probability of stocks, which is determined by4Of50%Ascend to70%。

Regarding the information above, todayAThe stock market was filled with joy, and the Shanghai Composite Index Soaring3.34%The ChiNext Index also rose4.92%, fully reflecting the mainland investors' interest inAStock inclusionMSCIThe earnest anticipation and thirst for incremental funds. Of course, on the other hand, it also reflects the current situationAThe stock has been falling for too long, and the people's minds are really rising.



But,


1Does the above information have any reference significance and value?

2And, is the understanding of the market really correct?

3Did you only see one side of the coin and express the wrong sentiment?

II

southA50On this matter, the market has clearly adopted a selective audiovisual approach. Everyone only looked at what they wanted to see, and obviously overlooked another equally important piece of information.

Similarly, it is the Southern Rich Times ChinaA50ETF，MarkitAccording to tracking data from Bloomberg, its short selling ratio is5The month skyrocketed to its previous level in just one month5Times, by1.3%Skyrocketed to the point of6.1%, for2015year4The highest level since the beginning of the month (see Figure 2).



Meanwhile, the other oneETFThere have also been historically high short positions. Trading in the United StatesishareAnshuo China Large Cap StocksETFThe short selling ratio is determined by1Months ago3%Rapidly rising to18%, setting a new two-year high (see Figure 3). And this oneETFThe target of tracking is exactlyALarge cap stocks.Foreign exchange gold



So, the problem naturally arises: the same overseas funds, in terms ofAStock inclusionMSCIOn the eve of the incident, it seemed that there was a shift towardsAA serious divergence in stock trends. Appearing in the Southern Rich Times ChinaA50ETFWhat kind of financial layout is behind the contradictory data on the market?AToday, the stock market warmly welcomes the applause of "reinforcements". Is it wishful thinking or is it true?

III

Before deciphering this data mystery, perhaps we can take a look firstA50ETFThe recent historical performance of bears and bulls on the market can help us determine the reference significance and value of the behavior information of these "devils".

Previous image: Last yearA50ETFThe total share of the fund.


It can be clearly seen that last year6month23Solstice7month6Day,A50Obtained5.85Net subscription of billions of fund units, with a net inflow of nearly70One billion RMB. Among them,6month23Daily net subscription of fund units reached2.13Billion. However, what happened afterwards, probably allAStock investors are deeply impressed by the start of a bear market, despite the intervention of the national team, whether it is the Shanghai Composite Index or the FTSEA50The index has never exceeded6month23Daily level.


It is obvious that the huge influx of "Japanese friends" has all stood on high hills, becoming Zhang Yimou's hawthorn tree.

A50ETFThe second growth in fund size occurred during9month9Solstice11month5Day. Fund shares from14.61Growing to one billion21.695Billion, net subscription7.085Billion, with a net inflow of over80One billion RMB. Among them, net subscription in the previous month4.285One billion, the next month2.8Billion. From the increase in the index during this period, it can be seen that the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by nearly11%FushiA50Up nearly10%。

This time, the "devils" copied the bottom correctly.

A50ETFThe third growth in fund size occurred during1month28Solstice4month15Day. Fund shares from16.25Billion growth to20.325Billion, net subscription4.105Billion, with a net inflow of over40One billion RMB. It is worth noting that,1month27The Nikkei Shanghai Composite Index has reached a low point2638.30, and4month13Today, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a historic high3097，4month15Daily closing3078Points.

fromAstock market indexJudging from their performance, the "devils" have once again made a correct bottom cut.
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