Shocked! The balance of China's wealth management products has reachedGDP35%Will the wave of defaults approach

In recent years, with the development of the industry, the variety and quantity of financial products in China have become more and more diverse. Especially in the context of Internet technology, the threshold of these financial products has been further lowered, the packaging effect has become more eye-catching, and the scope of dissemination has become wider. It often gives people the feeling that you will make money if you invest, and it is your loss if you do not invest.

However, as the saying goes, no matter how good you buy, you cannot sell. The risk of default chain reactions is becoming increasingly apparent in the vast Chinese wealth management product market.

According to Bloomberg, China's wealth management products have traditionally absorbed personal funds and invested them in various assets such as corporate bonds, stocks, and derivatives, but now the phenomenon of mutual investment is increasing. according toAutonomous ResearchThis month's calculations suggest that the size of such holdings may have expanded to at most last year2.6Trillion RMB(approximately amount to3960USD100mn)。

[blockquote]According to data from China Bond, as of2015At the end of the year, the balance of China's wealth management products increased from3Years ago7.1Trillion RMB growth to23.5Trillion yuan, equivalent to China's gross domestic product(GDP)of35%。Last year, there was an average of3,500For the issuance of wealth management products, some medium-sized banks, such as China Merchants Bank and Everbright Bank, rely particularly on wealth management products for their funding sources.


According to the data released by China Bond last month, as of last year12At the end of the month, the holding scale of interbank wealth management products increased from one year ago4,960RMB 100 million growth to3Trillion RMB.Autonomous ResearchBased on bank disclosure documents and interbank transaction data, it is estimated that these products may have up to85%Purchased by other financial products. The company speculates that in some cases, these products have been "over traded" with the aim of generating transaction fee income for banks.

The maturity of most of the above financial products ranges from1Months to6Months vary, there are also1Years or more. China Wealth Management Online1300The highest annual return rate for each variety is displayed in8%, usually in the3-5%The profit range of.

From the perspective of flow distribution,50.99%Investing in the bond and currency markets,22.38%Investing in cash and bank deposits,15.73%Investing in non-standard credit assets,7.84%Investing in the securities market,3.06%Invest in other markets.

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This trend is causing concern among Chinese observers. Firstly, this means that a poor investment in a wealth management product may infect other products, causing people to lose confidence in the entire market. Nowadays, wealth management products play an important role in bank financing. And this also indicates that it is difficult for wealth management products to find enough high-quality assets to achieve their return rate goals now. In the case of widespread losses, cross holding will make it more difficult to determine which types of assets are susceptible to impact - this is2008When the quality of mortgage backed securities in the United States deteriorated and triggered the global financial crisis, it was an important source of market panic.Foreign exchange gold

These issues have become more urgent this year because at least they have10Chinese companies defaulted on onshore bonds, causing a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index20%And the growth rate has decreased to25The Chinese economy at its annual low point has not shown any signs of recovery.

[blockquote]According to Ho Chi Peng, Chief Greater China Economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore, there is ample liquidity in the financial system, but high-yield assets that can be invested are scarce; Various risks are accumulating in this overcrowded financial system.

In the past three years, as banks compete for funding and fee income, and depositors seek higher returns than deposits, the issuance of wealth management products has experienced explosive growth. These products are usually sold by banks but do not appear on the balance sheet. They provide clear guarantees at different levels and are seen by many as having implicit support from banks or local governments.

AutonomousPartner Zhu Xialian is present5month17In an interview with Bloomberg, he stated that he began to see the phenomenon of building multiple layers of debt structures on the same underlying asset, similar to the subprime asset-backed securities and collateralized debt certificates in the United States that year(CDO)And synthetic formulaCDO (CDO-squared)Very similar. Zhu Xialian previously worked at Huiyu and gained fame for warning China of bad debt risks.

Managing Director of Oriental CapitalAndrew CollierIn an interview with Bloomberg TV on Monday, he said, "Investing in wealth management products between banks is very dangerous, the economic fundamentals are very dangerous, and other investment products are also very dangerous."
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