Shu Yuqin:5.13Suggestions for operating spot gold asphalt

Shu Yuqin:5.13goods in stockgoldAsphalt operation suggestions

Gold Message:

Gold Yesterday（5month12The market is generally characterized by a broad range of fluctuations, while the Asian and European markets are in a bearish downward pattern. After the initial announcement of the US market, it began to rebound and hit the highest point1280Nearby resistance, followed by speeches from some of the Federal Reserve's real power vote holders, with a strong hawkish atmosphere, especially from Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen's speech, which boosted the US dollar's pressure on gold, causing gold to rapidly decline and plummet to its maximum1260Nearby support,1260Nearby short-term support is relatively strong, and the closing in the evening was1262Near.crude oilAspect: The new high of asphalt provides a perfect entry point for hollow spaces.

The US government's data on initial jobless claims released on Thursday shows that the number of initial jobless claims has climbed to2015year2The highest level since the beginning of the month. After the release of this data, although the US dollar index experienced a decline, it still maintained a mild upward trend, which put pressure on precious metals to fall.

On the Federal Reserve side: Last night, several members of the Federal Reserve's vote committee delivered speeches. Boston Fed Chairman Rosengren stated that the likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates is higher than market expectations. Kansas Fed Chairman George believes that the level of interest rates in the United States is too low compared to today's economic conditions. These decisive vote committee comments seem to be laying the groundwork for the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting. Higher interest rates can usually boost the US dollar and reduce the attractiveness of investors to interest free assets denominated in US dollars, including precious metals. After the closing of precious metals, US congressmen disclosed Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen's response to written questions, in which Yellen reiterated his expectation that the US economy will continue to remain strong and reiterated that inflation rates will return to the Federal Reserve in the future2%The goal is to. The author believes that the comments made by the Federal Reserve officials above are hawkish remarks that boost the US dollar and suppress gold.

In terms of stock markets, major European and American stock markets generally fell on Thursday, but the US stock market rebounded and rose from better than expected profits of companies. In the short term, the rise in the stock market may suppress demand for gold as investors' risk appetite has boosted and they are turning to investing in stocks with higher returns and risks.

Gold technology:

The gold daily line collected a bearish candlestick with almost no up or down shadows yesterday, fully recovering the gains from the previous trading day. On the daily chart to the previous week1303After the high point falls, it is mostly a bearish trend, and after each bullish trend, it is engulfed by a solid bearish pillar, indicating the strength of the bears.4On the hourly chartMA10/MA30Intersection1272Pressure is formed nearby, above60Daily moving average1278There is still strong resistance nearby, as shown in the attached indicatorsstoThere are signs of forming a secondary dead cross, approaching the oversold area for operation,MACDThe green kinetic energy is gradually increasing. On the hourly chartstoWalk flat,MACDGreen kinetic energy is increasing, and the Bollinger Bands and moving averages are moving downwards. Overall, it is necessary to pay attention to the first priority during the day1272Nearby resistance, first touch can win short-term short positions, followed by upper focus128-80Strong resistance on the front line, with a focus on rebounding and short selling during intraday operations.

Single point trading for the gold portion:

　　1Open in the morning and do as much as you want, fast in and fast out. Look at the target68Nearby;

　　2, rebound1270-72Short on the front line, stop loss75Above, look at the target1263。

Asphalt basic surface:

Oil prices rose earlier after Shell announced the closure of a Nigerian oil pipeline, and Canadian energy companies are trying to restart Alberta's oil sands production facilities, which were shut down due to the fire. These facilities have daily production capacity exceeding100Ten thousand barrels. The data from the American Petroleum Institute is completely mistaken. According to official data from the US Energy Information Agency, crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased significantly last week340Ten thousand barrels, this decline is likely due to the impact of Canada's forest fires, with the country's main crude oil export market being the United States. The import volume of the United States is likely to further decline this week due to a significant decrease in Canada's crude oil production.

　　EIAThe report shows that the Meiyuan oil depot is stored from4month1For the first time in the past week, there has been a decrease in gasoline inventories, leading to an increase in oil prices;In addition, US commercial crude oil imports slightly decreased this week5000Buckets are also factors that need to be considered;Investors should be aware that in the coming weeks, the import volume of the United States may significantly decrease due to a decrease in Canadian supply, leading to a decrease in inventory;It is expected that crude oil inventories will continue to decline in the coming weeks.

The closure of Canadian oil production facilities and the news of a decrease in US crude oil inventories completely exceeded our expectations. Although the fire caused the shutdown of Canadian oil fields, I believe this will not be sustainable. The significant decline in crude oil inventories indicates that the supply of crude oil in the market is rapidly shrinking, especially in the United States. This should provide support for crude oil prices in the short term, and the market will reach equilibrium to some extent in the coming months, with oil prices expected to remain stable per barrel50USD to60Fluctuations between US dollars. in additionEIAAccording to a report released on Wednesday, it is expected that the average Brent crude oil price will be per barrel next year76USD, as demand continues to increase.

Asphalt technical surface:

Ninggui Asphalt fell again after reaching a high point last night and is currently trading at4466Running on the middle rail line of the Bollinger Belt, the three tracks show a tightening and stable trend at this time,MA5andMA10The moving average is currently running around the price of asphalt in the middle track, whileMACDThe indicator still shows a dead cross drooping, with the green energy column slowly increasing in volume.4Hour line, spot asphalt closed in shade, only from below to touching in the eveningMA10The rebound after the moving average is on the rise, and currently, asphalt prices are also operating on the Bollinger Bands,MA5The moving average has the intention of a downward trend, as shown in the attached indicatorsMACDThe trend is in a golden cross, but the energy column is already weak with high volume, and the double line is also showing signs of stability. Therefore, I am optimistic that the early asphalt market will continue to decline.

Single point positioning for asphalt section:

The layout of Ninggui Asphalt Middle Line is empty,4530Start layout, stop loss80-100Point, look at the target4000Integer level.

The above article was written by Shu Yuqin, an analyst at Wuhan Qianguanfeng. Some news and information content is excerpted from online resources. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investment carries risks, and investors operate accordingly at their own risk. Please indicate the source when reprinting.