Chen Yinzhuohan: Oversupply Concerns Take Power Fighting Oil Prices44Close or end rebound

　Chen Yinzhuohan Worries about oversupply intensify Fighting Oil Prices44Close or end rebound

    Wednesday（5month4At the beginning of the Asian market, oil prices slightly increased,NYMEXcrude oilfuturesTrading in43.78dollar/Near the bucket; Brent crude oil futures trading45.11dollar/Near the bucket. Overnight Last weekAPIThe increase in crude oil inventories was lower than expected, and both gasoline and refined oil inventories decreased, helping oil prices slightly rise. However, concerns about oversupply continued to ferment, and oil prices continued to decline for the third consecutive day.
　　
Concerns about oversupply continue to drive oil prices, resulting in three consecutive negative returns
　　
Weak economic data in China raises demand concerns in the United StatesNYMEXWTIcrude oil6Monthly Futures Tuesday（5month3Daily closing down1.13USD, decline2.25%Report43.65dollar/Bucket. Mainly affected by concerns about oversupply, the slowdown of the Chinese economy, the possibility of shale oil production recovery in the United States, and the lack of reduced crude oil supply in the Middle East are the main factors. A company in New York that tracks the dynamics of the global crude oil marketClipperDataProduct Research DirectorMattSmithAfter China, the world's second largest economy, released disappointing manufacturing related data, concerns about the supply and demand of the crude oil market have once again hit. China's Caixin Manufacturing Industry, which mainly tracks the activities of private factories in ChinaPMIExponential, from3Of the month49.7Slide down to4Of the month49.4, for consecutive14In50Under the watershed of prosperity and decline.SmithIt is believed that this is just one of the many potential indicators that the Chinese economy is still slowing down. He added that oil prices had fallen from their high point within the year in the previous two days, and there was another decline on Tuesday. This time, China's Caixin Manufacturing IndustryPMIThis indicates that China's manufacturing industry is still in a state of contraction, which has intensified the selling sentiment in the crude oil market.
　　
[US shale oil merchants may resume production]
　　
Another part of the concern comes from the recent rise in crude oil, which may encourage oil producers, especially shale oil producers from North America, to engage in increased production activities. If they produce more crude oil, it's not a good thing for oil prices. Online transaction service providerAccendoMarketsMarket research analystAugustinEdenIt is believed that oil prices seem to have peaked or are very close to the peak level. Out of this idea, people began to take profits. In areas in the United States where traditional drilling is unable to extract oil and where there are dense rocks and sand, hydraulic fracturing technology is mainly used as a highly efficient but expensive method to extract crude oil. After the collapse of oil prices, manufacturers using hydraulic fracturing technology are struggling because their production costs are much higher than other oil plants. This also means that as oil prices begin to rise, hydraulic fracturing has once again become profitable. Inducing producers to resume production will continue to oversupply the already oversupplied crude oil market.
　　
The crude oil supply in the Middle East has never actually decreased
　　
Market analyst at brokerage firm JiashengFawadRazaqzadaDespite the failure of major oil producing countries to reach any agreement on freezing production, crude oil is still experiencing an unstoppable surge, causing people to forget the core issue that has been troubling them for months, which is that the crude oil market has always been in a state of oversupply.RazaqzadaIn Tuesday's research report, it was noted that the recent oil prices have indeed had a strong ability to digest negative news, or it can be said that these facts have been completely ignored, such as the overall global crude oil supply still being surplus and the US crude oil inventory being at a record high level. So,RazaqzadaIt is said that the negative energy accumulated by these factors is slowly exerting pressure on oil prices. Iraq claims that its southern oil fields export crude oil on a daily basis340Ten thousand barrels, higher than3Monthly330Ten thousand barrels. Saudi Arabia4The monthly crude oil production is101510000 barrels/However, according to sources, the country's daily crude oil production may soon return close to30Record level in recent years105010000 barrels/Day. stay1After the lifting of Western sanctions, Iran's oil production has also increased, and since the beginning of the year, crude oil exports have almost doubled, to nearly20010000 barrels/Day.
　　
The growth rate of US crude oil storage did not meet expectations, resulting in a slight increase in oil prices
　　
American Petroleum Institute（API）According to the published data, as of4month29During the current week, US crude oil inventories increased126.5Ten thousand barrels, to5.397Billion barrels, expected to increase144.4Ten thousand barrels; The inventory of Kuxin crude oil has increased38.2Ten thousand barrels, also significantly lower than expected188Ten thousand barrels. In addition, gasoline and refined oil inventories in the United States both decreased last week. last weekAPIReduced gasoline inventory117.7Ten thousand barrels, estimated to decrease14.4Ten thousand barrels; last weekAPIReduced inventory of refined oil260.2Ten thousand barrels, estimated to decrease8.3Ten thousand barrels.APIThe increase in crude oil inventories is not as expected,WTIShort term upward breakthrough of crude oil44dollar/After the checkpoint, it immediately fell back.
　　
Baker Hughes, an American oil service company（BakerHughes）According to published data, as of2016year4month29The number of active oil wells in the United States decreased during the current week11Seat to332Seat, continuously decreasing for the sixth week, continuing to brush2009year11The month has hit a new low. At the same time, the total number of active oil and gas drilling in the United States has decreased12Seat to419Seats, decreased compared to the same period last year485Seat.
Oversupply Concerns Boost Fighting Oil Prices44Close or end rebound
　　
    US Energy Information Administration（EIA）The latest data shows that as of4month22During the current week, US crude oil production declined to89410000 barrels/Day, for2014year10The lowest since the beginning of the month, and it is expected that the average production this year will decrease to86010000 barrels/Japan, and US shale oil production will also increase5The month has dropped to a low of nearly two years. In addition, as of4month22In the past four weeks, gasoline consumption in the United States increased year-on-year5.6%, reaching94010000 barrels/Today, this crude oil fundamentals provide effective support.
　　
Outlook for the future market of crude oil:
　　
　　BKAssetanalystKathyLienIt is pointed out that the main reason for the recent decline in oil prices is the market's renewed concern about the oversupply of crude oil. But from the trend of oil prices in recent months, holding positions is the key to determining the trend of oil prices. The trader's position report shows that last week's long position in crude oil hit a one-year high. This indicates that the recent fluctuations in oil prices have been mainly influenced by profit taking and the US dollar/The impact of Canadian dollar short covering has increased the volatility of oil prices through these two forces. The Canadian dollar and oil prices have seen significant increases, and there has been a significant reversal similar to the one that occurred on Tuesday, typically lasting for three days or even longer. The support level for oil prices is at40dollar/Bucket. However, due to the upcoming release of crude oil inventories and Canadian trade data (imports, exports, trade accounts), these data will affect market sentiment and determine the duration of the oil price reversal.
　　
　　Forex.comandCityIndexMarket analyst forFawadRazaqzada"Although major oil producing countries have not reached an agreement on the issue of production freeze, the rise in crude oil prices has temporarily caused some oil producers to forget the oversupply problem that has plagued production in the past period. Therefore, the possibility of the market being forced to yield under the pressure of oversupply is increasing."
　　
　　AccendoMarketsResearch analystAugustin?EdenIt is pointed out that "crude oil prices seem to have peaked and fallen because the current oil prices are very close to the level that may drive hydraulic fracturing crude oil production up again, so I believe people are taking profits."
　　
    The author Chen Yinzhuohan graduated from the Finance Department of Wuhan University of Technology,10Entered the financial industry in [year] and became a nationally registered senior analyst（CFA）Currently, the Chief Gold Analyst of Hubei Jingzai Co., Ltd. Teacher Chen Yinzhuohan provides professional guidance on cutting:1land9zero9Lu Ling9Fifthly, we offer you the most sincere guidance and service. International Crude Oil Silver Shouts Single Junyang4Lu Er#0Nine Six&392, verification; Six six, no verification failed. Bring you profits! Specializing in spot researchgoldInvestment in precious metals such as spot silver. This blog provides daily market analysis and recommendations for spot gold and silver operations, with additional attention to the dynamics of the gold market. Welcome to inquire