Lu Xinyuan:5.4Analysis and operational suggestions on the spot asphalt market with excess crude oil production capacity (afternoon review)

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According to data from the Central Dispatch Bureau of the Russian Energy Complex,2016year1-4YoY growth in monthly Russian oil exports5.1%, up to8493Ten thousand tons. Export growth to CIS countries5.3%,reach76510000 tons, increasing exports to other countries5%, up to7729Ten thousand tons.
　　
Oil producing countries are already in a hurry to compete for market share. According to data released by the Central Dispatching and Management Bureau of the Russian Fuel Energy Complex on Tuesday, Russia has released data this year1-4monthcrude oilThe output is approximately1.80Billion tons, year-on-year growth2.7%YoY growth in crude oil exports6.1%. Last month, the country's crude oil production touched nearly30The highest in years.
　　
　　1—2In the month, the proportion of Russian oil exports to total Russian exports is23.5%And the same period last year was26.1%。
　　
　　NymexThe oil price is below2Moon touch26dollar/The low level of the barrel has shown strong rebound ability, but senior market technical analysts point out that even though oil prices have reached45Above the US dollar, however, the price is unlikely to reach50USD.
　　
　　TradingAnalysis.comWebsite StrategistToddGordonUtilizing tracking of crude oil pricesETF(USO)To assess where oil can rise in the short term, he pointed out that there are two clear counter trend signals suggesting that oil prices may weaken.
　　
Analysis of Ninggui Asphalt Technology:
　　
From the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands run parallel,KLocated below the Bollinger Belt track, currently obstructed by5Daily moving average suppression,MA5、MA10Parallel operation, attached diagramMACDRed kinetic energy reduction, dual parallel running on0Above the axis, the indicator is strong and randomKDJParallel downward running on0Above the axis, the indicator is relatively neutral and strong. from4When viewed online, the Bollinger belt runs with an opening,KThe line is located near the lower track of the Bollinger Belt,MA5、MA10Parallel downward movement, as shown in the attached figureMACDGreen kinetic energy release, dual parallel downward running0Near the axis, the indicators are neutral and weak, with random indicatorsKDJParallel running on0Above the axis, the indicator is weak. On the overall trend, asphalt bulls are strong, and it is recommended to prioritize high-altitude operations with low bullish positions as a supplement for intraday operations.
　　
Ninggui Asphalt Operation Suggestions:
　　
　　1Suggestions4130-4160Long nearby, stop loss40Point, target4250nearby
　　
　　2Suggestions4200-4240Short nearby, stop loss40Point, target4130nearby
　　
Today's Key Financial Data and Events2016year5month4Day Wednesday
　　
(Japan is closed for one day due to Green Day)
　　
　　①14:45France3Monthly trade account
　　
　　②15:50France4Monthly service industryPMIFinal value
　　
　　③15:55Germany4Monthly service industryPMIFinal value
　　
　　④16:00eurozone4Monthly service industryPMIFinal value
　　
　　⑤17:00eurozone3Monthly retail sales rate
　　
　　⑥20:15U.S.A4monthADPEmployment numbers
　　
⑦20:30U.S.A3Monthly trade account
　　
⑧21:45U.S.A4monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value
　　
⑨22:00U.S.A4monthISMNon manufacturingPMI, USA3Monthly factory order rate
　　
1022:30From the United States to4month29Day and WeekEIACrude oil inventory