Ding Wanting:4month14Japanese theory9Analysis of the stance of major oil producing countries on the "Doha Conference" and the trend of spot asphalt

Ding Wanting:4month14Japanese theory9Analysis of the stance of major oil producing countries on the "Doha Conference" and the trend of spot asphalt



As the frozen production meeting approaches,crude oilThe asphalt market has been turbulent recently, and the comments made by relevant oil producing countries before the meeting can give us a reasonable expectation for the uncertain results of the freeze production meeting. The following summarizes the recent statements and positions of major oil producing countries around the world regarding freeze production:



9The stance of major oil producing countries on the Doha "frozen production" conference



Russia: Holds an optimistic attitude towards the Doha Freezing Production Conference, and the agreement on freezing production can advance the time for the oil market to regain balance by six months. And it is said that oil prices may reach40-50dollar/bucket



Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia will only freeze crude oil production if other oil producing countries, including Iran, join the freeze agreementzyt433。



Iran: will participate in the Doha "frozen production" conference, but will not freeze production. After sanctions are lifted, Iran is in a special situation and hopes that other countries will also be aware of this



Kuwait: All indications indicate that,OPECAnd nonOPECOil producing countries will4month17A preliminary agreement on frozen production was reached at the Doha Conference in Japan, and it was pointed out that the frozen production agreement can be reached without Iran's participation



Qatar: Meeting Room Saudi Arabia, Russia2The follow-up meeting of the monthly meeting, due to the sharp decline in investment in the oil industry affecting global crude oil production, crude oil production may continue to decline. At the same time, oil producing countries believe that the current oil prices cannot be sustained



Venezuela: Seeking a freeze on crude oil production as the first step towards reaching a broader agreement in the Doha conference room(Venezuela can be said to be the most proactive member in seeking to freeze and reduce production)



Nigeria: Hope the Doha Agreement can be further improved and reached, even without Iran's participation



Oman: The frozen production agreement has positive significance and should give Iran some time to increase production and be willing to reduce production1010000 barrels/Day,OPECAnd nonOPECThe country needs



Collaborative production reduction5%-10%To stabilize the crude oil market



Ecuador: It is expected that many Latin American oil producing countries will reach a production freeze, and global oil producing countries cannot remain indifferent. Mexico and Colombia's departure from the freeze on crude oil production is not yet clear, and global oil producing countries will not discuss production cuts at the Doha meeting.



Based on recent comments from oil producing countries, the majority of them are reflected in the above(Except for Iran)Everyone is optimistic about the freeze production agreement reached at the freeze production meeting, and the recent trend also reflects this. Therefore, for specific operational guidance, Wei and Xin have been addedzyt433Consider the recent pullback and take a bullish approach, taking advantage of the trend.



In terms of technology: Yesterday evening, it rose and fell back, but the overall volatility of the day has slowed down. Accompanied by this rebound are the overall strength of commodities and the bottoming out rebound of the US dollar. In addition, this rebound is also accompanied by the high expectations of the market due to the potential positive impact of the frozen production meetingzyt433Therefore, it is expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern in the short term, and the daily chart has not fallen below5The daily moving average was previously expected to be mainly rebound, but currently the daily average5Daily moving average at3940First line, so multiple orders can wait3940Operate on the front line, and the resistance above is currently being judged4070reach4080Range, yesterday's daily chart showed a small cross star, but this cross star cannot fully predict a reversal in the market. Everything still needs to be determined by today's daily closing and possible adjustment momentum. Pay attention to intraday operations3940reach4080The oscillation opportunities in the interval, remember one sentence: bearish never dies, bullish never dies, don't be overly bearish.