Ding Wanting:4month13day Fundamental analysis of spot asphalt: long positions are greater than short positions

　　Ding Wanting:4month13day Fundamental analysis of spot asphalt: long positions are greater than short positions

　　
Basic favorable factors:
　　
(1)Russian oil producers have agreed to limit this year's production to1Monthly level. Putin and the country's major oil producers emphasized the need to continue working in coordination with other major oil producing countries, as the attitudes of some other oil producing countries remain uncertain and some countries have already joined in(Doha Production Freeze Agreement)However, some oil producing countries have not explicitly stated their intention to add Wei and Xinzyt433。"Iran's current attitude is still to insist on increasing production. Its officials have made it clear that Iran will not consider limiting or reducing production until it regains market share lost due to economic sanctions.
　　
(2)On Tuesday, in Saudi Arabia and Russiacrude oilAfter discussing the issue of production freeze, crude oilfuturesPrice jumps up. In addition, the United States lowered its domestic crude oil production forecast, ultimately causing oil prices to hit a new year high. There are reports that on the eve of this weekend's Doha Conference in Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Russia reached an agreement on stabilizing crude oil production. Fundamental bearish factors:
　　
(1)American Petroleum Institute(API)On Tuesday, it was announced thatThe weekly increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations.APIAnnouncement, as of4month8During the current week, US crude oil inventories increased620Ten thousand barrels, to5.363Billion barrels, analysts surveyed expect an increase190Ten thousand barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory decreases190Ten thousand barrels. After the data was released, Brent crude oil futures fell back to44.19The US dollar and US crude oil prices have dropped to41.64USD.
　　
Summary:
　　
According to relevant reports, Saudi Arabia has reached an agreement with Russia to stabilize crude oil production. The US dollar has been suppressed, and oil prices have rapidly rebounded, maintaining a high upward trend and continuing to rise.APIAfter the data was released and inventory increased again, oil prices experienced a sharp drop after the close. Currently, oil prices are still fluctuating in a narrow horizontal range, adding Wei and Xinzyt433As for the eveningEIAData shows that many investment institutions in the market are bearish on crude oil and asphalt prices. However, the market has repeatedly demonstrated the rhythm of short positions not dying and long positions not ending. Today, we will treat the short market situation with caution and maintain a low long strategy.
　　
Suggestions for spot asphalt operation:
　　
1.4020Long, stop loss3980, Objective4070reach4080
　　
2.If there is no obvious intention of a pullback, increase to4080Afterwards, callback4050Go long again, stop loss4010, Objective4090reach4100
　　
3.rebound4120reach4130Short range, stop loss4160, Objective4070reach4080
　　
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