Chen Yinzhuohan: It's better to have done it than to miss it (Jiangsu Zhongsu)

Chen Yinzhuohan: It's better to have done it than to miss it (Jiangsu Zhongsu)


International Spot Silver Friday(4month8day)In the morning trading of Yashi15.20Consolidation around the US dollar. Thursday(4month7day)Due to the decline of European and American stock markets and the cautious attitude of the Federal Reserve towards interest rate hikes, the US dollar continued to be under pressure, and silver prices briefly rose on the same day15.36The US dollar, subsequently reduced its increase to15.20Around the US dollar. On Friday, investors should pay attention not only to the economic data of Europe and the United States, but also to the speech of the chairman of the Federal Reserve of New York, Dudley.


Technically speaking, at the daily level, overnight silver prices are on the rise20Daily moving average15.37The resistance level of the US dollar has since fallen. On indicatorsMACDThe green kinetic energy column contracts, and the double line dead fork opening converges,KDJThe indicators fluctuate upwards, and the overall risk is relatively neutral.4HAt the level, there are no signs of improvement in the indicators, and short-term silver prices are expected to improve20Daily moving average15.37dollar-200Daily moving average14.85The US dollar fluctuates.


The initial resistance to silver prices currently lies in15.21Further resistance15.37、15.70、16、16.20、16.36as well as16.76USD. In terms of the downward trend, initial support is in14.86The US dollar, further supported by14.87、14.60、14.40、14.25as well as14.05/14USD. Author's reed 1690960nine one five
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    In terms of operational strategy, the overall suggestion for the opening of the Asian market on Friday is to14.85-15.40Light positions between the US dollar sell high and buy low.


Fundamentally positive factors:


　　1.Federal Reserve Chairman Yellen(Jannet Yellen)Thursday(4month7day)Although the economy has made "significant progress" after the financial crisis and the worst recession since the Great Depression, it still believes that there is a certain degree of relaxation in the US labor market. Meanwhile, the appreciation of the US dollar poses a drag on the economy.


　　2.Dallas Fed Chairman Copeland said on Wednesday that the Federal Reserve should remain patient and cautious in raising short-term interest rates, but rate hikes should be sustained.


　　3.The largest in the worldgoldSupporting listed trading fundsSPDR Gold TrustWednesday's increase in gold holdings0.51%, to819.60Tons, the first increase in nearly two weeks.


　　4.Federal Reserve Wednesday(4month6day)Published3Monthly meeting minutes display, Decision makers4There has been a heated debate over the monthly increase in the federal funds rate. Many policymakers have expressed that the global economic and financial situation still poses a significant downside risk to the US economic outlook, while several committee members have stated that other central bank actions have reduced global economic outlook risks. However, the minutes largely extinguished expectations for an April interest rate hike, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is not in a hurry to take action at the April meeting.


　　5.St. Louis Fed Chairman Brad said on Wednesday that since the Federal Reserve3Since the monthly meeting, there have been few data releases from the United States, with mixed results, which may make it difficult for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this month.


　　6.Chicago Fed Chairman Evans(Charles Evans)On Tuesday, he reiterated his advocate for the Federal Reserve to only raise interest rates twice this year, and stated that his economic growth forecast faces risks that are biased towards the downside. Evans is one of the most moderate officials at the Federal Reserve.


　　7.International Monetary Fund(IMF)Chairman Lagarde warned on Tuesday that global economic growth is facing increasing risks due to the slowdown of China's economy, falling commodity prices, and the possibility of many countries tightening financial policies, unless decision-makers take stronger measures.


Fundamental bearish factors:


　　1.According to data released by the US Department of Labor, the United States4month2The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits after quarterly adjustments for the current week is26.7Ten thousand, still at a relatively low level, estimated to be27Ten thousand, previous value is27.6Ten thousand.


　　2.Williams, Chairman of the Federal Reserve of San Francisco, United States(John Williams)On Thursday, it was stated that as long as the US economy continues to grow, corporate recruitment increases, and inflation rises as expected, then raising interest rates at least twice this year by the Federal Reserve is the "right path".


　　3.Cleveland Fed Chairman Maester(Loretta Mester)Wednesday(4month6day)The Federal Reserve stated that2016It is appropriate to continue to gradually reduce easing measures in the year, as factors such as overseas economic slowdown and a strong US dollar are still affecting the US economy.


　　4.As of this Tuesday,SPDRgoldETF(GLD)The holdings have been flowing out for two consecutive trading days, and the total holdings have decreased to818.09A three week low of tons. Last week's goldETFThe holding amount has decreased5.65Tons, this isGLDFor the first time since the beginning of this year, there has been a net outflow throughout the week.


　　5.Boston Fed Chairman Rosengren(Eric Rosengren)On Monday, it was stated that US interest ratesfuturesThe current trend suggests that the market expects only one rate hike this year, or even no rate hike, which is "surprising" and may be "overly pessimistic" as economic risks have subsided. Rosengren is2016The Federal Open Market Commission of(FOMC)Voting committee member.