Ding Wanting:4month8Analyzing the Trend and Operational Strategies of Spot Crude Oil from Multiple Perspectives in Japan

Ding Wanting:4month8Analyzing spot goods from multiple perspectives in Japancrude oilTrends and operational strategies

Due to the impact of the El Ni ñ o phenomenon, the rainfall since the beginning of this year has significantly increased compared to previous years. After several days of continuous rainy weather, it has finally cleared up today. The long-awaited sunshine has also brought vitality to all things, and everything in the world is also interconnected and interdependent. While El Ni ñ o has an impact on the climate, it may also have a certain impact on the production of crude oil. This can be reflected in the recent trend of asphalt market, After experiencing two consecutive weeks of sharp declines on the weekly chart, it is likely to clear up this week and provide direction for the short-term trendzyt433Looking back at the overall trend of this week, it was initially suppressed and then increased, and currently remains in a pattern of overall rebound. In the near future, we need to conduct a week long review of the relevant factors that affect the trend of asphalt and clarify our thinking:

Positive factors:

1.US Energy Information Administration(EIA)Data shows that US crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased last week493.7Ten thousand barrels, market estimate increases320Ten thousand barrels.

2.Federal Open Market Committee of the United States(FOMC)3The content of the monthly meeting minutes shows that the Federal Reserve4The monthly interest rate hike is unlikely, and the US dollar index has fallen, supporting a rebound in asphalt prices.

3.The El Ni ñ o phenomenon may have a certain impact on the output and supply side of crude oil, leading to a rebound in oil prices(Similar to the analysis of the impact of El Ni ñ o phenomenon on nickel production and supply)。

Negative factors:

1.US Energy Information Administration(EIA)Data shows that gasoline inventories in the United States increased last week143.8Ten thousand barrels, increased inventory of refined oil179.9Ten thousand barrels.

2.According to data from the Russian Ministry of Energy, Russia3Monthly oil daily production1091.2Ten thousand barrels, the highest level since the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

Detailed analysis:

US Energy Information Administration(EIA)Data released on Wednesday showed that US crude oil inventories unexpectedly fell significantly last week as refineries continued to increase production and imports declined. by4month1During the current week, US crude oil inventories decreased493.7Ten thousand barrels, and the market estimate is an increase320Wantong Add Wei, Xinzyt433The daily processing volume of crude oil in the refinery increased this week19.9Ten thousand barrels, increasing refinery capacity utilization rate1.0Percentage points, to91.4%;The daily import volume of US crude oil decreased during the week44.6Ten thousand barrels. After several consecutive weeks of growth, the unexpected decline in US crude oil inventories boosted oil market sentiment.

Overnight Federal Reserve3The minutes of the monthly meeting show that officials are concerned about4There is disagreement on whether to raise interest rates on a monthly basis, as pointed out by several committee members4The month should not raise interest rates because it would make the market mistakenly believe that the Federal Reserve is in a hurry to raise rates, and the factors that are dragging the economy will only slowly disappear. Therefore, raising interest rates should be cautious. Meeting minutes indicate that the Federal Reserve4The probability of monthly interest rate hikes is very low, and the downward pressure on the US dollar exchange rate also provides support for oil prices.

Overall, due toEIAInventory andFOMCThe meeting minutes are positive, and news from oil producing countries shows that4month17The expectation of reaching a freeze production agreement at the Doha meeting in Japan is still relatively optimistic, and the short-term bullish atmosphere is still good.

Technical analysis:

This week, overallKThe line trend first suppressed and then rose, maintaining a relatively strong rebound pattern, indicating that there is still short-term bullish momentum. On the weekly chart, it is expected that there is a high possibility of closing with a positive line this week. Yesterday, the overall trend of Ninggui Asphalt was suppressed and then rose, ultimately touching the daily line5After the daily moving average, it closed with a small negative line with a long upward lead, indicating that the support below is more obvious and there is still momentum for rebound in the short term. The long-term graph monthly chart has further rebounded toMA10Due to the demand for a bullish cross on the daily moving average chart, the main focus is on the bullish outlook for a pullback within the day, with the main support located below3580reach3600Range, the main resistance above is still focused on this round of rebound50%Location of3720First line, so try to get as close as possible for more orders within the day3580reach3600Entering the range, it is expected to maintain the strong rebound in the second half of yesterday's evening within the day

Specific operational suggestions for the day:

1.rebound3720Short on the front line, stop loss3760, Objective3660reach3670

2.Callback3580reach3600Long range, stop loss3550, Objective3660reach3670

3.Please refer to the actual skirt for specific operations339-369-738Note:789The current price is subject to ordering.