Li Youya: The price of crude oil has risen, and crude oil is still in the springEIACan you appreciate it

Li Youya:crude oilPrices have risen, crude oil is still in sight in springEIACan you appreciate it
Since2month11The price of crude oil has risen recently50%But the number of bulls who are truly betting on an increase in oil prices has hardly changed;In fact, the upward momentum of oil prices comes more from the unprecedented reduction of short positions;

Tuesday(3month29day)International crude oil prices have fluctuated and fallen, and US oil prices have briefly fallen below39The bullish sentiment in the US dollar has subsided, and bearish positions have once again hit to end the rebound in oil prices. Market analysis suggests that there will be significant fluctuations in crude oil prices due to the upcoming production freeze meeting and whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates;

In other words, the current bullish crude oil market has become powerless, and the upward trend of several weeks has not received substantial basic support. However, due to the driving force of market sentiment, bears are now starting to counterattack, and the supply and demand surplus has truly begun to exert force. Last weekEIAInventory data3Multiple times higher than expected, the US crude oil inventory record has been set again. Coupled with various issues with the production freeze agreement and the strong hawkish attitude of the Federal Reserve this month, it is highly likely that several substantial negative news will attack together, and crude oil faces the possibility of falling at any time.

In terms of thinking, the author continues to be optimistic that the medium to long term crude oil market will first lower and then gradually rise in response. Even if a freeze production agreement is reached, it will be frozen at a high production level, which will not be beneficial for the current situation. Iran and Libya have already decided not to participate in the freeze production meeting, and it has been previously stated that in order to improve the current international oil price situation, production must be reduced. Merely freezing production will not have much effect, At present, Saudi Arabia and Russia are still in the preparation stage, but crude oil inventories are still breaking records, and Iran and Libya will significantly increase production in the future. Ultimately, oil prices will still fall to digest the problem of global inventory surplus.

Suggestions for spot crude oil operation;
　　1Oil price242Long nearby, stop loss245 target235；
　　2Below the oil price233Long on the front line, stop loss230 target240；

Suggestions for spot asphalt operation;
　　1Above asphalt3280Short on the front line, stop loss3320 target3110；
　　2Below asphalt3130Long nearby, stop loss3100 target3200；