Yao Wenli:3month21Analysis and operational suggestions on the daily and evening market trends of bulk commodities, spot asphalt, and spot copper in eastern Zhejiang

Yao Wenli:3month21Analysis and operational suggestions on the daily and evening market trends of bulk commodities, spot asphalt, and spot copper in eastern Zhejiang

Macro analysis

A few months ago,crude oilThe inventory is even so high that producers choose to store crude oil at sea. Of course, storing oil on board ships will not yield any benefits, and instead will require paying high fees. But now the problem of oversupply of crude oil may be exaggerated. The decline in US crude oil production coupled with the interruption of crude oil supply from Iran and Nigeria has led to a resurgence in crude oil prices40dollar/Barrel, International Energy Agency（IEA）Therefore, it is concluded that the dawn of oil prices is imminent.

Now if crude oil traders rent oil tankers200Ten thousand barrels of crude oil stored at sea6Six months, so we need to pay760The cost of ten thousand dollars is almost2Twice the monthly time. The increase in storage costs reflects the growth in demand for crude oil. According to data from the Baltic Exchange in London, the shipping cost of crude oil from Saudi Arabia to Japan has increased from30%To daily66641US dollars. And offshore oil storage6The average monthly cost per barrel has increased from6.16The US dollar has risen to6.80USD.

In the past month, both Iraq and Nigeria have experienced pipeline disruptions, resulting in a temporary decrease in the daily total supply of crude oil in both countries80Ten thousand barrels, and there are rumors that US production will decrease to900ten thousand/Barrel every day. These three places have reduced supply in total10010000 barrels/Around the day, it is close to half of the global surplus supply. According to Bank of America Merrill Lynch（BofA Merrill）According to a research report released, the year-end target price for American Oil may be per barrel54US dollars. Previously, analysts from the bank conducted research on2Monthly oil price forecast6The month will reach per barrel47The US dollar is due to the summer driving season driving demand growth, more relaxed monetary policy than expected, and a decrease in US shale oil production. However, analysts from Bank of America and Merrill Lynch said, "When oil prices fall, they will decline in a straight line, but they will not rebound in a straight line."

In addition, the crude oil market is constantly fluctuating, and the Federal Reserve is not raising interest ratesEIAThe three positive factors, including a smaller than expected increase in inventory and the finalization of the frozen production meeting, have contributed to a strong rebound in oil prices. The author believes that if the problem of oversupply is not truly solved, the rebound in oil prices can only be temporary.

Note: The above operation suggestions are for reference only. For specific operation suggestions, please add the author Yao Wenli immediately σσ：267，987，6700Get one-on-one real-time operation suggestions.

Technical analysis

Spot asphalt and spot crude oil continued to rise positively last week, and ultimately stabilized in the middle of the weekly Bollinger Bands. The short-term moving average continued to rise with a golden cross. Therefore, the overall operating strategy for this week is still to focus on pullbacks and long positions. For the weekly chart, the key focus is to pay attention to the following:MA5Moving average support. However, at the end of last Friday's trading session, there was a slight adjustment signal at a high level. Although the daily main chart indicators still maintain an upward pattern, the attached chart indicatorsMACDContinuously operating at a high level, and currently the red candle emission has been reduced,RSIas well asKDJTo varying degrees, it deviates from the downward trend, and the demand for short-term correction is relatively strong. However, the author analyzed in a midnight comment last Friday that the probability of "time for space" appearing in a strong pattern is relatively high. Therefore, even if the demand for short-term correction is strong, it is still not recommended for everyone to excessively pursue short positions and rebound short positions. In the short term,4hourKThe line rebounded slightly after testing the middle track with the Bollinger Bands, filling the early short circuit gap. From a technical perspective, there is a high probability of returning to a weak position after filling the gap. Therefore, it is still recommended to sell against high positions in the evening.

Last week, spot copper received a bullish candlestick, completely engulfing the previous week's bullish candlestick, and its trend still appears relatively strong. However, last Friday remained the same as the trend of crude oil, rising and falling before finally closing negative. The short-term adjustment signal was also relatively strong, so from a technical perspective, it is no different from asphalt. At the beginning of the week, when there was a high short selling, it gradually turned bullish in the middle of the week. In terms of specific trends,4After starting a downward trend in hours, the indicators gradually turned bearish. Therefore, today we will first focus on the rebound high point last Friday evening, followed by the high point last Friday. For the support below, this week we will focus on the vicinity of last week's opening price.

　　3month21Suggestions for operation of bulk and spot asphalt in East Zhejiang, Japan in the evening

　　1、3420、3450Short selling in batches, stop loss each50Point, target3350, breaking the limit and holding until3300；

　　3Ambush3300Multiple orders nearby, stop loss3250Below, target3350-3380。

　　3month21Qingdao Luyin and spot asphalt in the evening can refer to operational suggestions

　　1、2030、2050Short selling in batches, stop loss each30Point, target1980、1950；

　　3Ambush1950Multiple orders nearby, stop loss1920Below, target2000-2030。

　　3month21Suggestions for evening reference of bulk and spot copper in East Zhejiang, Japan

　　1Radicals32700Long position for light positions below, stop loss100Point, target32900；

　　2Stable32900Short selling in batches above, stop loss33270, Objective32200；

　　3First contact32200Long, stop loss32050, Objective32500。