Guan Yiqiu:3month21Suggestions for the operation of bulk spot crude oil and asphalt in eastern Zhejiang in the evening

Fundamental analysis:
　　
United Statescrude oilfuturesThe rally ended last Friday as new data showed that the number of US oil drilling platforms this week has increased12The first increase in the month has raised concerns in the market that the expected production reduction may not be achieved. The inventory of ground refining enterprises has decreased for the first time since reaching a new high last year, providing support for spot prices. In addition, there is currently an oversold rebound in the technical aspect, and it is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate upwards in the future. It is recommended to buy long on dips. In addition, the crude oil market is constantly fluctuating, and the Federal Reserve is not raising interest ratesEIAThe three major positive factors, including a smaller than expected increase in inventory and the finalization of the frozen production meeting, have contributed to a strong rebound in oil prices. The author, Guan Yiqiu, believes that if the problem of oversupply is not truly solved, the rebound in oil prices can only be temporary.
　　
Technical analysis:
　　
On the weekly chart of bulk spot crude oil (asphalt) in eastern Zhejiang, it continued to rise continuously last week, and ultimately stabilized in the middle track of the weekly Bollinger Belt. The short-term moving average continued to rise with a golden cross, so the overall operating strategy for this week is still mainly a pullback and long position. From the daily chart, it can be seen that crude oil quickly fell after the important pressure position above the previous trading day, and the long covering position accelerated the arrival of the correction point in this round of upward trend. In terms of indicators,MACDRed kinetic energy column shrinkage,KDJDead fork divergence; The trend of the four hour chart is above the Bollinger medium track, but it is highly likely to fall below the support of the medium track within the day,MACDThe indicator suddenly shows a dead cross, with the red kinetic energy column disappearing and the green kinetic energy column showing signs of further decline; Looking at the one hour chart, this round of decline has repairedMACDThe deviation of the current price is close to below50%Further observation is needed to determine whether the pullback line can be sustained. However, the author analyzed in a midnight comment last Friday that the probability of "time for space" appearing in a strong pattern is relatively high. Therefore, even if the demand for short-term correction is strong, it is still not recommended for everyone to excessively pursue short positions and rebound short positions. In the short term,4hourKThe line rebounded slightly after being tested on the middle track with the Bollinger belt, filling the morning gap. From a technical perspective, there is a higher probability of returning to a weak position after filling the gap. Therefore, Guan Yiqiu and Wei Xin will have a slight rebound in the eveningtheblacksheepIt is recommended to sell short during high periods.
　　
　　3month21Suggestions for evening operation of bulk spot crude oil (asphalt) in East Zhejiang, Japan:
　　
　　1Touching3430、3450Short in batches, stop loss3580Point, target3350；
　　
　　2Ambush3300Multiple orders nearby, stop loss3250Below, target3350-3380。