Bonda Asia: Federal Reserve independence questioned The US dollar index closed slightly lower

The data released overnight by the US Department of Commerce shows that retail sales without inflation adjustment are11Month on month growth0.6%, higher than0.5%Expected value;10Monthly data will be revised down from the initial value to-0.1%Compared to the same period last year, sales have increased3.3%If the volatile automotive categories are excluded, the core retail sales still achieve0.5%The month on month growth. Excluding the month on month growth in retail sales of automobiles0.5%Exceeding market expectations. asGDPCalculate the month on month growth of the 'Retail Sales Control Group' for key reference indicators0.4%As expected. From a year-on-year perspective, the total retail sales increased by5.1%, indicating that although market sentiment is affected“KThe sustained impact of the structural differentiation of the "type economy" and the overall consumption data remain stable, supporting the market's performance in the fourth quarterGDPExpectations of strong growth. Even if roughly adjusted using the Consumer Price Index, actual retail sales still maintained year-on-year growth.

In addition, the Beige Book released by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday showed that economic activity in most parts of the United States has increased in recent times, and employment conditions have remained generally stable, but inflationary pressures have not completely subsided. This provides a realistic basis for the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates unchanged in the short term and continue to observe data changes. The report shows that in12In the jurisdiction of the Federal Reserve, there are8There has been an increase in economic activity, and8The jurisdiction indicates that recruitment activities have remained largely unchanged. Except for two jurisdictions that only recorded a "slight" price increase, prices in other regions have risen at a "moderate" rate. Overall, there has been a slight improvement in this report compared to the previous one. The outlook for future economic activity is moderately optimistic, with most respondents expecting slight to moderate economic growth in the coming months

The data that needs attention today is the UK11monthGDPMonthly rate, UK11Monthly industrial output rate, UK11Monthly commodity trade account, United States1Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index, United States11Monthly import price index rate, as of the end of the month in the United States1month10Number of initial jobless claims for the current week and Canada11Monthly manufacturing sales rate.


USD Index

The US dollar index fluctuated downwards yesterday, with a slight decline in the daily chart. The current exchange rate is trading at99.10Nearby. In addition to profit taking, the impairment of the independence of the Federal Reserve has also exerted some pressure on the exchange rate. However, the overall good economic data of the United States during this period consolidated with the Federal Reserve1The expectation of monthly fluctuations has limited the downside space of the exchange rate. Today's Focus99.50Nearby pressure situation, supported below98.50Near.

euro/dollar

The euro fluctuated and consolidated yesterday, with a slight increase in daily trading. The current exchange rate is trading at1.1640Nearby. In addition to providing some support for the exchange rate through short covering, the weakening of the US dollar index under the pressure of the Fed's weakened independence is also an important factor supporting the rebound of the euro. In addition, the expectation that the European Central Bank's interest rate cut is nearing its end has also provided some support for the exchange rate. Today's Focus1.1750Nearby pressure situation, supported below1.1550Near.

pound/dollar

The pound fluctuated upwards yesterday, with a slight increase in the daily chart. The current exchange rate is trading at1.3430Nearby. In addition to providing some support for the exchange rate through short covering, the weakening of the US dollar index under the pressure of profit taking and the erosion of the Federal Reserve's independence is the main reason supporting the rebound of the pound. However, the well performing economic data in the United States reinforces the Federal Reserve1The expectation of monthly fluctuations has limited the rebound space of the exchange rate. Today's Focus1.3500Nearby pressure situation, supported below1.3350Near.