ZFXShanhai Securities: Non farm report torn apart! Gold price held steady4300dollar ！

U.S.A11The monthly employment data presents a rare "ice and fire dual sky" phenomenon, with an increase in non-agricultural employment positions6.4Ten thousand, significantly higher than market expectations5Ten thousand, and successfully reversed it10Significant decrease in months10.5Thousands of positions, however,11The monthly unemployment rate unexpectedly rose4.6%Created from2021year9The highest level since the beginning of the month.

1、 Expectations of interest rate cuts rise, warming and benefits are goodgold


Tuesday（12month16During the trading day, spot gold prices fluctuated at high levels and fell to a low point during trading4272Near the US dollar, but quickly rebounded to4335USD, final report received4302The US dollar is basically flat. Wednesday（12month17In the morning session of the Asian market, spot gold fluctuated narrowly and is currently trading at4306dollar/Around ounces.

Market analysis suggests that the latest employment report provides more reasons for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, and a low interest rate environment typically favors gold. Data shows that the United States11Although there has been a rebound in non farm employment positions in the month, the unemployment rate has decreased9Of4.4%Ascend to4.6%Higher than economists' expectations. Current interest ratesfuturesMarket expectations2026The Federal Reserve will cumulatively cut interest rates by approximately59Basis points.


Federal funds rate futures traders believe that,1The probability of a rate cut at the monthly meeting is only24%The next time may be4The month. Interest free gold typically performs strongly in low interest rate environments, as opportunity costs decrease and the weakening of the US dollar further enhances its attractiveness. Investors are waiting for Thursday's11monthCPIAnd Friday'sPCEIf the inflation data is weak, it will further consolidate the expectation of interest rate cuts and push gold to break through.

2、 The tense situation between Russia and Ukraine supports gold prices


In addition to the US economic data, the latest developments in the Russia-Ukraine conflict also provide an important hedge support for gold. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have taken control of the Novopratonovka settlement in the Kharkiv region and implemented measures against Ukrainian military facilities154The second strike destroyed multiple armored vehicles and drones.

According to the Moscow Times of Russia14Daily reports indicate that the Russian military13A suicide drone launched an attack on a Türkiye cargo ship transporting sunflower seed oil in the Black Sea on September, in retaliation for Ukraine's previous attacks on Russian oil tankers using suicide drones. Western media believes that this means that both Russia and Ukraine will prioritize targeting each other's economic lifeline in the Black Sea.

These developments indicate that geopolitical tensions are far from easing, and any escalation of conflicts could quickly drive up demand for gold. As a traditional safe haven asset, gold often benefits from increased uncertainty, especially when the stock market falls, the US dollar weakens, and bond yields decline. The decline in the Wall Street stock market on Tuesday is a manifestation of this risk aversion sentiment.

2、 Weak global economic indicators affect gold prices


The broader global economic context is also influencing the trend of the gold market. S&P Global announced on Tuesday12Monthly United States ComprehensivePMIInitial value drops to53.0, for6The lowest since the month, below11Of54.2Although the reading is higher than50Indicating that the economy is still expanding, but the growth rate of new business is20The month is the smallest, and new product orders have decreased for the first time in a year. service industryPMIlower52.9manufacturingPMIlower51.8All of them are lower than expected.

From a global perspective, these indicators reflect an increase in economic uncertainty, especially under the influence of Trump's trade policies. Although consumer spending resilience exists, further weakening of the labor market remains the main risk. Gold, as a hedging tool, is more valuable in this environment.