Banda Asia: Weak inflation data affects fermentation The US dollar index closed slightly lower

On Monday, against the backdrop of the federal government shutdown leading to the suspension of official labor data releases, a model constructed by the Chicago Fed using private sector data showed that the United States10The monthly unemployment rate remains roughly at4.3%Nearby, with8The official reading for the month is consistent, indicating that the job market is further cooling down but there are no signs of it getting out of control. The Chicago Federal Reserve previously estimated that,9The monthly rounded unemployment rate is4.34%，8Month is4.35%。 because9The official monthly unemployment data is missing, and the model is forced to use its own "real-time estimation" of the previous month as a benchmark to calculate10Monthly level. The Chicago Fed reminds that this approach may accumulate errors during a prolonged government shutdown, but the impact is expected to be "still limited" in the next one to three months. This model combines multiple types of private sources and is highly correlated with different aspects of the labor market. The Chicago Federal Reserve pointed out that the current estimation results are consistent with the small upward trend of some state-level unemployment claims that are still being released normally, indicating that employment in the United States has significantly cooled down, but has not yet entered a recessionary deterioration.

Additionally, according to the International Monetary Fund（IMF）The latest forecast shows that2030The proportion of total US government debt in the yearGDPThe proportion will soar from the current level to over20Percentage points, reaching143.4%Breaking the historical record set after the epidemic.IMFIt is estimated that the US budget deficit will be2030Before the New Year, it was maintained every yearGDPof7%Above, it has become the economy with the highest deficit rate among all the wealthy countries tracked by the institution. In contrast, the government debt burden of Italy and Greece is expected to decline by the end of this century, and both countries are strictly controlling their budget deficits. to2030In the coming year, the government debt ratios of Italy and Greece are expected to decline, while the debt to GDP ratio of the United States is expected to decreaseGDPThe ratio will continue to rise. United States Congressional Budget Office（CBO）It is expected that this upward trend will continue for decades.

The data that needs attention today is,Germany11monthGfkConsumer Confidence Index and the United States10The Consumer Confidence Index of the Conference Chamber of Commerce in June.

USD Index

The US dollar index fluctuated and consolidated yesterday, with a slight decline in the daily chart. The current exchange rate is trading at98.70Nearby. In addition to the impact of weak inflation data and the continued pressure on the exchange rate caused by the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts, the good economic data in the Eurozone during the period also had a certain impact on the exchange rate. However, the easing of trade concerns between China and the United States has limited the downside potential of the exchange rate due to the risk sentiment boosting the market. Today's Focus99.20Nearby pressure situation, supported below98.20Near.

euro/dollar

The euro fluctuated and rose yesterday, with a slight increase in the daily chart. The current exchange rate is trading at1.1650Nearby. In addition to the continued support for the euro from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations, the overall good economic data of the eurozone during the period also provided some support for the exchange rate. However, lingering concerns about political turmoil in France have limited the upward potential of the exchange rate. Today's Focus1.1750Nearby pressure situation, supported below1.1550Near.

pound/dollar

The pound fluctuated upwards yesterday, with a slight increase in the daily chart. The current exchange rate is trading at1.3350Nearby. Short covering and replenishment1.3300The technical buying near the checkpoint has provided some support for the exchange rate, and the weakening of the US dollar index under the pressure of the lingering expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is also an important factor supporting the rebound of the pound. However, investors' expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England have limited the room for the exchange rate to rebound. Today's Focus1.3450Nearby pressure situation, supported below1.3250Near.