ZFXShanhai Securities: Gold hits new highs!5000Is the dollar not a dream?

Monday（10month20Japanese), spot goodsgoldStrong price increase exceeding2.5%Not only did it recover all the losses from last Friday, but it also briefly broke historical highs to per ounce4381.29USD, final report received4356.26USD, up approximately2.5%Tuesday（10month21In the morning session of the Asian market, spot gold fluctuated at a high level and is currently trading at4368.89dollar/Around ounces.

I        Reasons for yesterday's rise in gold prices

1Geopolitical tensions in Gaza

On Monday morning, Israel launched airstrikes against Hamas for allegedly violating the ceasefire agreement at night, leading to renewed conflict in the Gaza Strip. This event ended the brief calm and reignited concerns about further escalation of regional conflicts. Jerusalem Post20The latest events between Israel and Hamas indicate that the ceasefire is still very fragile. Reuters also stated that the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement was already fragile, and the Israeli military19The military strike in Japan is the most severe test faced since the ceasefire agreement came into effect.

2The US shutdown continues

The current shutdown in the United States has entered its first phase20Oh my god, we haven't found a solution yet. The Senate has made multiple attempts to pass the temporary appropriations bill, but all have ended in failure, with the latest attempt being the tenth time it has failed to break the deadlock. Eastern Time10month20On the day, the Senate of the National Assembly11The vote on the government funding bill has not yet been passed, so the "shutdown" of the US government has entered its fourth week.

The focus of the ongoing dispute between the two parties is that the Democratic Party insists on extending the enhanced subsidies under the Affordable Care Act and restoring healthcare benefits for some legal immigrants; The latter opposes increasing spending. The shutdown has caused delays in the release of data for several US economic indicators, amplifying economic uncertainty and reinforcing the spread of risk aversion.

3The market is betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates again within the year2second

At the same time, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy expectations have become a strong engine for the rise in gold prices. Traders almost99%Bet on the probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at next week's meeting25A basis point, even expected12There will be another interest rate cut this month. The root of this loose expectation lies in potential signals of weakness in the US economy, as well as the indirect impact of trade frictions on inflation and growth.

II        Gold may have an impact5000dollar

Bank of America expects gold prices to rise in the future12to18Rising to per ounce within a month5000The US dollar. Bank of America released a research report stating that due to the structural deficit in the United States, inflationary pressures brought about by deglobalization, market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, and ongoing global geopolitical tensions, an upward adjustment is needed2026Annual average gold price forecast18%To per ounce4329US dollar, silver price forecast raised29%To per ounce54.88The US dollar. The report points out that it is estimated that investment demand growth next year will be similar to this year, which may push gold prices up to per ounce5000USD.

III5000Global Financial Imagination under the US Dollar and Gold Prices

1Global Capital Migration: Gold becoming a "hard currency" will attract capital to flee traditional assets, causing selling pressure on stock and bond markets (especially US Treasury bonds) and capital flowing into gold and related safe haven assets.

2The shaking of US dollar hegemony: The depreciation of the US dollar and uncontrolled inflation weaken its international trust, and the rising status of gold as a substitute for international clearing and reserves may shake the currency system dominated by the US dollar for decades.

3Monetary policy is in chaos: the central bank is caught in a dilemma between controlling inflation and stabilizing the economy, and global financial stability is facing severe challenges, which may trigger a new round of policy turbulence.