ZFXShanhai Securities: Federal Reserve5The minutes of the monthly meeting have been released, and the uncertainty of the US economic outlook has intensified!

Federal Reserve5According to the minutes of the monthly meeting, earlier this month, Federal Reserve decision-makers generally believed that the uncertainty facing the economy was higher than before, and that it was appropriate to remain cautious about interest rate cuts, waiting for the impact of Trump administration policies such as tariffs to become clearer before considering action.

Moreover, in this summary, almost all Federal Reserve decision-makers expressed concerns about the long-term inflation caused by tariffs. succeed4After the minutes of the last meeting of the month, in this meeting, Federal Reserve officials are once again vigilant. The Federal Reserve Monetary Policy CommitteeFOMCWe may have to make a difficult trade-off between fighting inflation and preserving employment.


I19Mentioning uncertainty, stating that the uncertainty of the economic outlook is "exceptionally high"

In this summary, 'uncertainty' remains the key word. Last time, the entire summary was included21There is a mention of 'uncertainty' in this document19Here. this19Either mentioning high uncertainty or indicating a significant amount of uncertainty or an increase in uncertainty.

The minutes state that when commenting on the current situation and economic outlook,

The attendees believe that the magnitude and scope of tariff increases announced so far far far far exceed their previous expectations.

There is also significant uncertainty regarding changes in fiscal, regulatory, and immigration policies and their economic impacts. Overall, participants believe that the uncertainty of their economic prospects is exceptionally high. ”


President Trump's unstable trade policies are seen as one of the biggest uncertainties in the current economic outlook. Economists generally believe that tariffs will drive up inflation and suppress economic growth. Although the market is2025The expectation of a recession in the coming year has decreased, and Federal Reserve staff have lowered it2025Year and2026Annual economic growth forecast.

The meeting minutes show that Federal Reserve staff believe that the likelihood of the economy falling into recession is almost as high as their baseline forecast. They expect the labor market to be 'significantly weak', with the unemployment rate rising above the 'natural unemployment rate' this year and maintaining a high level2027Year. Tariffs are expected to significantly increase inflation this year.

2、 Almost all mention the more persistent risk of inflation

Inflation expectations have become a key concern for policy makers. The minutes pointed out that "almost all" attending members mentioned the risk that inflation may be more persistent than expected. A data from the University of Michigan shows that consumers' inflation expectations for the next five to ten years have significantly increased, mainly due to the impact of tariffs.


Nevertheless, Federal Reserve officials generally believe that long-term inflation expectations remain anchored based on market data. The minutes stated, "If inflation continues to increase and growth and employment prospects deteriorate, the committee will face difficult trade-offs

The minutes show that when discussing risk management considerations, "participants unanimously agreed that the risk of both inflation and unemployment rising has increased. Almost all participants commented on the risk that inflation may be more persistent than expected

Participants emphasized the importance of maintaining good stability in long-term inflation expectations, with some pointing out that due to inflation being consistently higher thanFOMCThe target may be particularly sensitive to inflation expectations. Subsequently, the minutes once again mentioned the "difficult trade-offs":

Participants pointed out that if inflation is proven to be more persistent, economic growth and employment prospects will weaken（FOMC）The committee may face difficult trade-offs. ”


The attendees pointed out that the final adjustment range of the Trump administration's policies and their impact on the economy are highly uncertain. A small number of participants also pointed out that higher uncertainty may suppress demand from businesses and consumers, and if downside risks in economic activity or labor markets become a reality, it may curb upward pressure on inflation.

3、 Federal Reserve's forecast for interest rate cuts within the year

Federal Funds RatefuturesTraders believe that the Federal Reserve is most likely to9Resume interest rate cuts in the month. Interest rate futures show that the Federal Reserve6The probability of monthly interest rate cuts is only2.2%，7The probability of monthly interest rate cuts is only24%，9The probability of monthly interest rate cuts is about60%。

Barclays Bank stated that based on current economic data trends, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will7Month and9Monthly interest rate cuts25Basis points,2026There will be two equally significant interest rate cuts this year.


Barclays emphasized that although the pace of inflation in the United States has slowed down, signs of a gradual cooling of the job market will provide operational space for the Federal Reserve to shift towards loose policies.