ZFXShanhai Securities: Trump is self defeating! The recession in the United States may be underway!

Recently, a report from Goldman Sachs once again sounded the alarm: the probability of a US recession has soared to45%Follow4month9The actual implementation of Japanese tariffs. And predict that if a recession occurs, interest rates will be cut in the next year200Base point.

4month6Goldman Sachs analystJan Hatzius、David MericleIn its research report titled "The US Economy: Countdown to Recession," the United States2025Q4 of the yearGDPGrowth forecast from previous1.0%Reduced to only0.5%In the future12The probability of the US economy falling into recession in the next month is higher than before35%Significantly increased to45%。

1、 The harm of Trump's frequent tariff policies to the United States

Firstly, it is evident that if Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" continue, the US economy will face even more severe "stagflation" risks. In the short term, a decline in economic growth in the United States will be difficult to avoid. Objectively speaking, the essence of tariffs is tax transfer, where the government increases revenue and businesses and consumers bear the costs, which is equivalent to fiscal austerity. And this will push up US prices in the short term, suppress consumer demand in the long term, and create a "stagflation" dilemma.

Secondly, tariff policies have pushed up inflation and dragged down economic growth. Federal Reserve Powell pointed out that the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration will at least push up inflation in the short term and may have more lasting effects. In addition, tariff measures have accelerated the risk of economic recession in the United States. Former Chief Economist of the World Bank, Kohik Basu, believes that Trump's tariff measures will raise US car prices, harm the long-term health of the US economy, and may lead to the loss of the US competitive advantage in the global market.


Tariff measures may lead to a decrease in the competitiveness of American companies in the global market, affecting exports and international market share. Kaushik Basu pointed out that high tariffs in the US market enable other countries to produce goods at lower costs, ultimately forming a competitive advantage over the US in the global market. On the other hand, Trump's tariff policies have led to a sustained decline in the US stock market. succeed4month2After Trump signed the so-called "equivalent tariffs" executive order, the US stock market has experienced a continuous period of about5The worst trading days of the year.

2、 Multiple investment banks predict that the United States is about to experience a recession

Morgan Stanley US economists emphasize that if the announced tariffs persist for a long time, the downside risks to growth will significantly increase, while the upside risks to inflation will also intensify. The drag from trade and immigration policies is unlikely to be offset by fiscal policy measures and deregulation. In addition, the significant deterioration of asset prices remains an important risk facing the outlook for consumer spending. Although the global economic downturn caused by the US recession is not a baseline scenario, it is becoming an increasingly realistic pessimistic scenario.


JPMorgan Chase's latest warning points out that if the Trump administration announces the continued implementation of tariffs on US trading partners, it may lead to the US and even the global economy being affected2025The year fell into recession. Bruce Casman, Chief Economist of the bank（Bruce Kasman）Analysis shows that the negative impact of this round of tax increases is expected to be significantly amplified by retaliatory actions from trading partners, a decline in US business confidence, and disruptions in global supply chains. After the tariff measures were announced, the market reacted quickly. Several Wall Street institutions have issued warnings of a US economic recession, with some even listing it as a basic forecast scenario.

III        The US tariff policy may trigger a global economic recession


Trump's' reciprocal tariffs' ignored directlyWTOThe principle of most favored nation treatment and dispute resolution mechanism should be replaced by unilateral actions instead of multilateral negotiations. This inequality directly challenges itWTOThe fair trade rules and existing global multilateral trade framework are prone to trigger a chain reaction of retaliatory tariffs, which will further damage global trade operations and drag down global trade.

according toOECDThe global economic outlook report released believes that global economic growth will further slow down due to the uncertain tariff policies of the United States,OECDReduce separately2025Year and2026Annual global economic growth rate0.2and0.3Percentage points to3.1%and3.0%。


Before the implementation of the US "reciprocal tariff" policy, multiple international media and authoritative institutions had already issued warnings, stating that this "tit for tat" trade retaliation measure would not only backfire on the US economy, but also sound the alarm of global economic recession. Bloomberg analysis shows that the US tariffs have led to an increase in global supply chain costs40%Multinational corporations are forced to restructure their production networks. International Monetary Fund(IMF)The report states that if the trade war continues for a year, globallyGDPThe loss will reach7%Equivalent to the combined economy of France and Germany.