Ultima Markets：【市场热点】通胀突然增速，加国减息报忧

Canada5月通胀率年增2.9%，意外从4月报的三年低点2.7% 大幅攀升。市场原预期该数据可放缓至2.6%。 再者，通胀率录得月增0.6%。

虽然物价水平符合加拿大央行的预测，即今年上半年通胀年率维持在3% 附近，但滞胀趋势对预期宽松政策形成不小挑战。

有几个关键因素导致通货膨胀转热。航空运输价格涨 4.5%，以致运输成本上升 3.5%, higher than 4 Of3.1%。 食品价格增 2.4%, higher than last month's 2.3%；食品杂货费用涨 1.5%, higher than last month's 1.4%This is from 2023 year 6 月以来首见加速。

健康和个人护理费用增加明显达 3.6%, higher than4Of 3%。 家用品、家具和设备成本下降幅度缩小（-1.5% vs-2.1%）。 住房成本依然居高不下，高达 6.4%，但没有进一步加剧。

随着加拿大通胀率意外上升，加币兑美元汇率升至1.365，攀到6month3日以来高点。 本月加拿大央行将利率下调25Bps to4.75%，并表示通胀继续如预期放缓，可能会进一步降息。 然而，物价意外回温可能促使加拿大央行在下一步采取更谨慎观望态度。

(通胀率YoY%，加拿大统计局)

(美元兑加元日线图)

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