Ultima Markets：【行情分析】澳联储若不明确路径，澳元将跌...

todayUltimaMarkets Bringing you 2024year 6month 18日的澳元兑美元In depth analysis.

Fundamental points

• 澳联储登场:今日市场迎来澳大利亚联储的利率决定。5月利率决议中，澳联储上调了通胀预期同时预计在明年6月之前都不会降息。若6月份的声明没有明确的利率前景基调，澳元的任何反应都仅仅是短暂的。
• 澳大利亚通胀：澳联储的货币政策犹豫不定的主要原因在于当前澳大利亚通胀趋势仍然高企。4monthCPIYear-on-year increase3.6%，扭转了2023年的部分大幅下降。澳联储更多关心是否需要加息。
  

technical analysis

Daily chart analysis

（澳元兑美元的日线图，来源Ultima Markets MT4）

• MACD：指标线在0轴上方发出空头信号后，能量柱体逐渐缩小即将接近0轴附近。理论上来说，汇价在0轴附近存在反弹甚至反转的概率。若0轴上方再度多头信号则是值得关注的入场机会，反之则汇价将迎来快速的下跌。
• Supporting price range：图标上能很明确看出当前汇价受阻于多重的支撑价位，黑色65日虚线200日均线，同时也是38.2%斐波那契回撤位附近。若这一强力支撑也被跌破，则汇价下方空间打开，至少看向61.8%One area.
  

1Hour chart analysis

（澳元兑美元的1Hour chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

• Random oscillation index：指标已经进入超买区域，暗示当前多头力量短期占据上方，等待脱离超买区域后可以关注是否有值得关注的多头信号。
• Moving average resistance：尽管汇价目前正处于反弹上行趋势，但是上方200周期均线是关键的阻力价位。若汇价无法有效突破该价位，则当前上行趋势只能视为反弹，仍存继续下跌的概率。
• 艾略特波浪结构：今日澳元兑美元走势非常关键，将决定接下来2周的趋势方向。6month12日以来的下跌趋势完整，因此近期的上涨趋势分为两种概率。第一，上涨为平台型的C浪。第二则是全新上涨趋势的初期。而1.382倍的斐波那契扩展位将成为趋势方向的分界线，同时也是上述的均线阻力附近。
  

Trading CentralHub Line Indicators

（澳元兑美元的30Minute chart, sourceUltima Markets APP）

• according toUltima Markets APPInTradingCentralHub line indicators, central price range for the day0.6590，
• 0.6590Upward bullish, first goal0.6630Second objective0.6645
• 0.6590Under bearish, first target0.6575Second objective0.6560
  

Disclaimers

The comments, news, research, analysis, pricing, and other information contained in this article can only be considered as general market information and are provided solely to assist readers in understanding the market situation and do not constitute investment advice.UltimaMarketsReasonable measures have been taken to ensure the accuracy of the data, but the accuracy of the data cannot be guaranteed and can be changed at any time without notice.UltimaMarketsWe will not be responsible for any losses or losses (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information.