Ultima Markets：【行情分析】日元弧形顶确立，静待日央行购...

todayUltimaMarkets Bringing you 2024year 6month 13The daily exchange rate between the US dollar and Japanese yenIn depth analysis.

Fundamental points

• US inflation data:U.S.A5Monthly and quarterly adjustmentsCPIAnnual rate recorded3.3%, down to3个月低位。美国5Monthly and quarterly adjustment coreCPIAnnual rate recorded3.4%, for2021year4月以来最低水平。通胀意外放缓，交易员重新定价美联储11The possibility of monthly interest rate cuts is100%.
• 降息预期：美联储连续第7次将基准利率维持在5.25%-5.50%区间不变，点阵图将今年的降息预期从3次砍至1次，明年上调至4次。鲍威尔表示通胀已大幅缓解，但仍过高。今年至今，并未对通胀有更大的信心以便进行降息。
• 日本央行登场：日本央行明日即将登场。市场预期日央行将放慢购债步伐，每月缩减约6万亿日元规模的购债步伐，这是典型的紧缩货币政策。尤其是在日元持续走软的背景下，采取这种行动的可能性正在上升，届时日元存在升值走势的概率。
  

technical analysis

Daily chart analysis

Daily chart of USD/JPY, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

• Random oscillation index：指标快线和慢线上行放缓，甚至无法快速涨至超买区域，暗示当前多头力量薄弱，至少短期日元存在升值的概率。
• 阻力价位：汇价在没有跌破65日均线前无法确认空头趋势来临，但是基于当前反弹力度较弱，上方关注78.6%回撤价位附近是否存在终结反弹的概率，届时可能转向下行。
  

1Hour chart analysis

(USD/JPY)1Hour chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

• Random oscillation index：指标昨日超卖区域反转上行，目前即将进入超买区域，汇价存在一定的抛压概率。
• 弧形顶：本周以来的美元兑日元价格形成弧形顶形态。昨日汇价跌破颈线支撑后，目前反弹至颈线和黑色65周期均线组成的联合压制区域。汇价若无法成功突破阻力，则日元仍存进一步升值的概率。
  

Trading CentralHub Line Indicators

(USD/JPY)30Minute chart, sourceUltima Markets APP）

• according toUltima Markets APPInTradingCentralHub line indicators, central price range for the day157.10，
• 157.10Upward bullish, first goal157.45Second objective157.75
• 157.10Under bearish, first target156.45Second objective156.15
  

Disclaimers

The comments, news, research, analysis, pricing, and other information contained in this article can only be considered as general market information and are provided solely to assist readers in understanding the market situation and do not constitute investment advice.UltimaMarketsReasonable measures have been taken to ensure the accuracy of the data, but the accuracy of the data cannot be guaranteed and can be changed at any time without notice.UltimaMarketsWe will not be responsible for any losses or losses (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information.