Ultima Markets：【行情分析】原油超跌反弹，地缘政治仍是...

todayUltimaMarkets Bringing you 2024year 6month 6OfWTIcrude oilIn depth analysis.

Fundamental points

• 地缘政治仍是风险：据伊朗媒体报道，以色列当地时间周一凌晨在叙利亚城市阿勒颇附近发动空袭，造成一名伊朗军事顾问死亡。伊朗最新回应声称以色列必须“血债血偿”。战争等级的升级预期或将短期促进油价上涨。
• 原油需求短期低迷：美国至5month31Day and WeekEIA战略石油储备库存为2023year3month31日当周以来最高。同时，精炼油库存增幅录得2024year1month5日当周以来最大。
  

technical analysis

Daily chart analysis

（WTIDaily chart of crude oil, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

• Random oscillation index：指标昨日进入超卖区域后疑似发出多头信号，暗示短期多头力量占据上风。但是快线尚未彻底上穿慢线指标，做多仍然需要耐心等待多头信号确立。
• Downward channel line：油价在连续下跌5个交易日后昨日终于出现反弹信号——看涨吞没。不过值得注意的是，看涨吞形态出现位置是下行通道线下沿附近，不排除是做空者获利了结头寸所形成的反弹。
• 反弹高度：油价在没有突破前期矩形震荡区间上沿前，暂时视其为反弹。反弹第一目标关注斐波那契回撤位的38.2%，这通常是强势趋势的最高频率的回调位置。第二目标则关注矩形震荡区间下沿一带。
  

1Hour chart analysis

（WTICrude oil1Hour chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

• Random oscillation index：指标在超卖区域中反复纠缠徘徊，暗示此前油价超卖情绪严重。而指标在周二快速上涨则表明油价短期超卖已经结束，油价趋势进入反弹周期。
• 反弹力度：原油价格昨日突破上行通道线上沿，油价若没有再度出现强势上涨的形态，油价随时可能再度下跌回至下行通道线内。
• 艾略特波浪结构: From15分钟的时间周期来看，反弹上涨的浪aAnd wavesb结构完整，油价或将走出3-3-5的平台型调整浪。平台型调整浪中浪c通常是浪aof1.382倍，若继续反弹则看向1.618倍，同时也是75Near the integer checkpoint.
  

Trading CentralHub Line Indicators

（WTICrude oil30Minute chart, sourceUltima Markets APP）

• according toUltima Markets APPInTradingCentralHub line indicators, central price range for the day72.55，
• 72.55Upward bullish, first goal75.40Second objective76.35
• 72.55Under bearish, first target71.80Second objective71.00
  

Disclaimers

The comments, news, research, analysis, pricing, and other information contained in this article can only be considered as general market information and are provided solely to assist readers in understanding the market situation and do not constitute investment advice.UltimaMarketsReasonable measures have been taken to ensure the accuracy of the data, but the accuracy of the data cannot be guaranteed and can be changed at any time without notice.UltimaMarketsWe will not be responsible for any losses or losses (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information.