Ultima Markets：【行情分析】日元短期升值在望，决定性趋势...

todayUltimaMarkets Bringing you 2024year 6month 4日美元兑日元In depth analysis.

Fundamental points

• 套息交易推动日元贬值：日元走弱和美元走强增加了套息交易的吸引力，套息交易是指借入日本货币，然后买入美元并赚取超过5%的收益。日元的走软又进一步推动了套息交易的回报，只有基本面消息上出现预期之外的利好消息，日元才能打破当前的恶性循环。
• 央行政策差异：年内依旧保持降息悬念的美联储，本周的就业数据若能进一步提升降息预期，则美元本周的贬值倾向或能推动日元走向短期的升值趋势。而下周美联储和日本央行相继公布的利率决议则将明确日元能否脱离当前的贬值趋势。
  

technical analysis

Daily chart analysis

(USD/JPY daily chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

• Random oscillation index：指标在超买区域发出空头信号，随后快线指标顺势下行，慢线指标昨日彻底脱离超买区域，暗示当前空头占据上风，值得切换更小的时间周期关注做空机会。
• Moving average support：美元兑日元上方的红色下行趋势线阻止汇价进一步反弹上行。昨日汇价跌破黑色支撑线156.560水平一带，亚盘时段汇价若反弹不超该价位，则大概率将跌破红色33日均线，看向黑色65Daily moving average.
  

4Hour chart analysis

USD/JPY4Hour chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

• Random oscillation index:Indicator in50中位线上方发出空头信号，即将进入超卖区域暗示汇价短期下跌力度强劲，值得随时关注做空机会。
• 头肩顶形态：美元兑日元随机指标和价格呈现明显的背离走势，典型的头肩顶形态。昨日在跌破颈线和短期均线组（红色33周期和黑色65周期线）后，后续下跌概率加大。目前触及下行通道线下沿一带，下一目标看向绿色200Periodic moving average.
  

Trading CentralHub Line Indicators

USD/JPY30Minute chart, sourceUltima Markets APP）

• according toUltima Markets APPInTradingCentralHub line indicators, central price range for the day155.75，
• 155.75Upward bullish, first goal157.03Second objective157.40
• 155.75Under bearish, first target155.13Second objective154.75
  

Disclaimers   

The comments, news, research, analysis, pricing, and other information contained in this article can only be considered as general market information and are provided solely to assist readers in understanding the market situation and do not constitute investment advice.Ultima MarketsReasonable measures have been taken to ensure the accuracy of the data, but the accuracy of the data cannot be guaranteed and can be changed at any time without notice.UltimaMarketsWe will not be responsible for any losses or losses (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information.