Ultima Markets：【行情分析】以伊冲突或升级，油金乘势上行

todayUltimaMarkets Bringing you 2024year 4month 19OfWTIcrude oilIn depth analysis.

Fundamental points

• OPEC Monthly ReportMaintain in monthly report2024Year and2025The annual global crude oil demand growth rate is expected to be225and18510000 barrels/The day remains unchanged. Before OPEC releases its latest report, crude oilfuturesLast week soared to last year10The highest level since the beginning of the month, the escalating tensions in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, and the prospect of supply tightening in the coming months have driven bullish sentiment.
• Demand expectations have been raisedPreviously, the US Energy Information Administration(EIA)Upregulation of global demand estimates, in line with the International Energy Agency(IEA)The predicted quantity is basically consistent. This forecast comes as the world's largest oil trader is becoming increasingly optimistic about the market outlook for the second half of this year.
• 地缘政治:以色列和伊朗双方冲突更有可能升级而非降级，或对石油供应产生影响。鉴于以色列预计将在周末对伊朗的空袭进行直接报复，市场预期战争升级的风险不小，石油供应可能受到冲击。
  

technical analysis

Daily chart analysis

（WTIDaily chart of crude oil, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

• Random oscillation index：指标在超买区域发出空头信号，昨日快线和慢线也相继跌破50中位线，暗示油价短期仍将继续下行，关键看油价下方支撑效果。
• Upward channel line：上周五曾分析油价若跌破通道线（淡绿色）则存在33日均线的均值回归概率。目前已经触及均线理论上调整到位，需要切换小周期观察是否有反转信号。若继续下跌则看向深绿色上行通道线下沿，该价位附近也是虚线200Near the daily moving average.
  

4Hour chart analysis

（WTICrude oil4Hour chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

• Random oscillation index：指标在超卖区域发出多头信号，暗示油价下跌或结束。不过基于短期油价仍未回到颈线上方，仍需要保持警惕。
• 均线的支撑和阻力：虚线250周期均线是油价长期以来的多空分界线，昨日油价再次触及该均线，今日亚盘时段开始反弹上破了下行趋势线（绿色）。上方目标看向红色33周期均线，若继续上破则可以确认油价下跌调整结束，即将继续上涨。
  

Trading CentralHub Line Indicators

（WTICrude oil30Minute chart, sourceUltima Markets APP）

• according toUltima Markets APPInTradingCentralHub line indicators, central price range for the day82.80，
• 82.80Upward bullish, first goal83.50Second objective84.30
• 82.80Under bearish, first target81.05Second objective80.50
  

Disclaimers

The comments, news, research, analysis, pricing, and other information contained in this article can only be considered as general market information and are provided solely to assist readers in understanding the market situation and do not constitute investment advice.UltimaMarketsReasonable measures have been taken to ensure the accuracy of the data, but the accuracy of the data cannot be guaranteed and can be changed at any time without notice.UltimaMarketsWe will not be responsible for any losses or losses (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information.