Ultima Markets：【行情分析】日元短期升值超百点，长期仍看...

todayUltimaMarkets Bringing you 2024year 4month 17The daily exchange rate between the US dollar and Japanese yenIn depth analysis.

Fundamental points

• 日央行历史干预规模：昨日美元兑日元快速下跌1日元左右，市场认为日央行疑似出手干预日元。但是根据2022年日本央行历史的干预规模来看，此前干预持续时间至少45分钟，同时最少下跌幅度也超400点，因此干预可能性较小。
• 日央行干预难影响结局：从过来经验来看，foreign exchange干预自身很难逆转日元的贬值趋势，更多是起到放缓日元贬值速度的作用。日元的升值趋势更多看的是美联储降息预期以及大型金融性风险事件所引发的日元避险属性。
• 美联储降息预期进一步走低：美联储主席鲍威尔昨日表示最近的数据显示今年通胀进展不足，对通胀信心的恢复可能需要更长时间。市场降低了对美联储今年降息超过一次的预期。
  

technical analysis

Daily chart analysis

Daily chart of USD/JPY, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

• Random oscillation index：指标在超买区域纠缠，暗示当前多空力量正处博弈，在没有明确出现下行趋势或者脱离超买区域前，不能轻易看空美元兑日元。
• 潜在阻力：美元兑日元价自突破152整数关口后上方空间彻底打开，没有前期阻力作为参考。只能通过斐波那契扩展位和上行通道线来计算潜在的阻力压制区域。等比斐波那契扩展位157.034一带是潜在的阻力价位。
  

1Hour chart analysis

(USD/JPY)1Hour chart, sourceUltima Markets MT4）

• Random oscillation index：指标昨日再度发出多头信号，暗示多头短期仍然占据上风。不过基于汇价和指标已经形成了一次顶背离，关注是否存在二次背离的概率，届时汇价或面临深度调整。
• Moving average support：汇价自站上均线上方后并未跌破，昨日红色33周期均线再度支撑汇价下跌。因此短期汇价想要出现反转行情，第一目标关注红色33周期均线和黑色65周期均线的支撑情况。
  

Trading CentralHub Line Indicators

(USD/JPY)30Minute chart, sourceUltima Markets APP）

• according toUltima Markets APPInTradingCentralHub line indicators, central price range for the day154.30，
• 154.30Upward bullish, first goal155.21Second objective155.47
• 154.30Under bearish, first target153.87Second objective153.61
  

Disclaimers

The comments, news, research, analysis, pricing, and other information contained in this article can only be considered as general market information and are provided solely to assist readers in understanding the market situation and do not constitute investment advice.UltimaMarketsReasonable measures have been taken to ensure the accuracy of the data, but the accuracy of the data cannot be guaranteed and can be changed at any time without notice.UltimaMarketsWe will not be responsible for any losses or losses (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information.