Datian Gold Industry: Gold Breakthrough2400Inflation recovery is difficult to stop strong momentum

As of2024year04month15During the Japanese Asian session,goldPrices have continued to maintain a strong momentum this week and are still at a pace of constantly reaching new historical highs. Although inflation data has rebounded and may also affect expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in June, the impact on gold is limited as adjusting monetary policy is only a matter of time, especially since European central banks are even more clear than the Federal Reserve. In addition, the safe haven sentiment brought about by the Middle East situation is constantly providing support, as bullish gold prices have an advantage.

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　　PPIThere is not much room for growth, easing inflation concerns

Spot gold slightly rose and was once close to2400dollar/Ounces. Gold prices rose nearly on Thursday40The US dollar hit its highest intraday level2377.60dollar/Ounces, closing2372.26dollar/Oz, previously lower than expected US producer price data, resulting in an increase in the number of people applying for unemployment benefits1The highest since the beginning of the month has boosted hopes of a US interest rate cut this year.

United States3The monthly producer prices have only slightly increased, and the impact of the increase in service prices has been partially offset by the decrease in commodity prices, easing people's concerns about the rebound in inflation.

The report released by the Ministry of Labor on Thursday has led economists to predict that relative to3Strong monthly consumer price data and personal consumption expenditure favored by the Federal Reserve when formulating monetary policy(PCE)The price index will only slightly increase.

High inflation and sustained strength in the labor market have prompted financial markets and most economists to shift their expectations for the timing of the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut from6Month postponed to9Month. The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday3month19-20The minutes of the Japanese policy meeting also indicate that decision-makers are concerned that inflation progress may have come to a halt.

Decision makers can remain vigilant and wait for more data on the next steps of inflation. The decline in producer price increases may bring some comfort to consumers in the coming months

The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the United States Department of Labor stated that,3Monthly Final Demand Producer Price Index(PPI)Month on month increase0.2%Economists surveyed predict an increase in prices0.3%。2Monthly reading confirmed as rising0.6%。3monthPPIYear-on-year increase2.1%，2Monthly increase1.6%。

　　PPIThe report shows that,3Monthly service price increase0.3%, and2The monthly increase is the same. This is mainly due to the sharp rise in prices of securities brokerage, trading, investment advice, and related services3.1%. Increase in portfolio management fees0.5%. Portfolio management fees, healthcare, hotel and motel accommodation costs, and airfare prices are all used for calculationPCEPrice index.

The price of the product is2Lunar leap1.2%Afterwards,3Monthly decline0.1%. The wholesale price of gasoline has decreased3.6%. Excluding food and energy, the price of goods is2Monthly increase0.3%After,3Monthly slight increase0.1%。

According toPPIConsumer Price Index(CPI)Data, economists predict corePCEThe price index will only slightly increase, and the estimated month on month increase without rounding is0.21%to0.28%between.2Monthly CorePCEPrice index rose month on month0.3%. It is expected that the year-on-year increase of this indicator will decrease from2Of2.8%Slow down to2.7%, will be the smallest in three years.

Expected3Monthly overallPCEThe price index will rise month on month0.28%The year-on-year increase will rise to2.6%。2 monthPCEPrice index increased month on month0.3%, year-on-year increase2.5%

　　OPECIncreasing demand expectations drives up oil prices

Beautycrude oilA slight drop in volatility and inflation stickiness have dampened hopes of a recent US interest rate cut, but concerns about Iran's potential attack on Israeli targets have kept crude oil prices near a six-month highOPECIt is believed that summer demand will be quite strong.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's meeting indicate that officials are concerned that progress on inflation may have come to a halt and that tightening monetary policy needs to be maintained for a longer period of time.

After consumer inflation data exceeded expectations for the third consecutive time, it was originally expected that6Investors who cut interest rates on a monthly basis now believe that9The month is more likely.

The European Central Bank continued to maintain borrowing costs at record high levels as expected on Thursday, but also hinted at the possibility of a rate cut soon.

The slowing pace of interest rate cuts may suppress oil demand, butOPECPersist in its commitment to2024A forecast of relatively strong global demand growth for the year.

Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)On Thursday, it is predicted that summer fuel consumption will be very strong, and we will continue to focus on2024There is a forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand this year, and it also indicates that the world economy may perform better than expected this year.

　　OPECIn the monthly report, it is stated that,2024World oil demand will increase in the year22510000 barrels/Day,2025Annual increase18510000 barrels/Day. Both forecasts remain unchanged from last month.

Economic growth may bring additional upward momentum to oil prices. This year, due to tight supply and wars in the Middle East, oil prices have risen by over a barrel90USD.OPECAnd its allies(NamelyOPEC+)Last week, it was agreed to maintain the production reduction action until6end of month.

　　OPECIn the report, it was stated that "although there are some downside risks, if the growth momentum at the beginning of the year can continue, this may contribute to..."2024The annual global economic growth has brought further upward momentum.
　　OPEC+Will be on6The monthly meeting decided whether to further extend the production reduction or restore some supply to the market.
　　OPECThe monthly report stated, "In the face of ongoing uncertainty, the strong outlook for summer oil demand deserves careful monitoring of the market to ensure a healthy and sustainable market balance."
　　OPECThe report also states that althoughOPEC+Member States from1A new round of voluntary production reduction will begin in the month, but3monthOPECOil production has remained stable and increased3,000bucket/Day, reach266010000 barrels/Day.