Da Tian Jin Ye:CPIBeyond expectations, June interest rate cut may be hopeless

As of2024year04month12During the Japanese Asian session, which was highly anticipated by the market this weekCPIAfter the data was released, the market has once again adjusted its expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in June, as the data shows that inflation levels in the United States are still high. The subsequent minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting also emphasized this view and indicated that a longer period of tightening monetary policy may be needed to control the pace of price increases. HowevergoldAlthough prices have fallen back due to some interference, the space is actually relatively limited.

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　　Stubborn inflation levels in the United States hinder the process of interest rate cuts

United States3The monthly increase in consumer prices exceeded expectations as gasoline prices and rental housing continued to rise, prompting financial markets to anticipate that the Federal Reserve would postpone until9Reduce interest rates again on a monthly basis.

The strong performance of consumer price data for the third consecutive month also indicates that,1Month and2The rebound in monthly inflation cannot be entirely attributed to the price increase of companies at the beginning of the year, as most economists believe.

According to the data released last week,3The monthly employment growth in the United States is accelerating, and the unemployment rate has increased from2Of3.9%Descend to3.8%. The stubbornly high cost of living will give11month5The US presidential election in Japan had a significant impact. However, there are also some hopeful signs in the report, such as supermarket food prices remaining stable and motor vehicle prices falling, leading to a resurgence of commodity deflation.

The US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday that,3Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Month on month increase0.4%, and2The monthly increase is the same. The price of gasoline is2Monthly increase3.8%Afterwards,3Monthly increase1.7%. Rising housing costs, including rent0.4%, and2The monthly increase remains unchanged.

Gasoline and housing contributedCPIMore than half of the increase. Rising food prices0.1%But as the prices of butter, grains, and baked goods hit new highs1989The largest monthly decline since the beginning of the year, with grocery store food prices remaining unchanged.

　　3monthCPIYear-on-year increase3.5%, for9The largest increase since the beginning of the month,2Monthly increase3.2%. Economists interviewed previously estimated that,3monthCPIMonth on month increase0.3%, year-on-year increase3.4%。

Although the year-on-year increase in consumer prices has shifted from2022year6Touched by the moon9.1%The peak of inflation has fallen, but the trend of slowing inflation in recent months has actually come to a halt. Excluding food and energy with significant fluctuations,3monthCPIMonth on month increase0.4%, and2Month and1The monthly increase is basically unchanged. Before rounding, the coreCPIMonth on month increase0.359%Economists believe that this indicates that inflation is not out of control. coreCPIThe month on month increase was boosted by rent.

Shortly after the data was released, according to the Zhishang Exchange(CME)ofFedWatchTools, financial markets will shift their expectations for the first rate cut by the Federal Reserve from6The month has been postponed9Month. They now expect to only cut interest rates twice this year, instead of the three times that Federal Reserve officials envisioned last month. A few economists believe that the window for interest rate cuts is closing.

　　3Monthly CoreCPIYear-on-year increase3.8%, and2The monthly increase remains unchanged. first quarter CPIThe annualized growth rate is4.2%Compared to the fourth quarter of last year3.4%Accelerated.

Based on existing data, economists estimate that3Monthly CorePCEPrice index rose month on month0.3%, and2The monthly increase remains stable, while the year-on-year increase will decrease from2Of2.8%lower2.7%. To be announced on Thursday3Monthly producer price data may alter these predictions.

　　The Middle East situation remains tense, helping oil prices slightly rebound

Beautycrude oilNarrow range oscillation, previously seen as the three sons of a Hamas leader were killed in Israeli airstrikes on the Gaza Strip, exacerbating concerns that ceasefire negotiations may be deadlocked. However, the United StatesCPIStronger than expected helped the US dollar soar, andEIAThe significant increase in crude oil inventories still requires vigilance against the risk of a correction in oil prices.

The Israeli military confirmed that the attack was carried out, stating that these three sons were agents of the Hamas armed faction. On Tuesday, Hamas stated that it was studying Israel's proposed ceasefire, but stated that the proposal "did not make any concessions" and did not meet any demands from Palestine. The Gaza War has been ongoing for six months.

Local time10Daily report: Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement(Hamas )The three sons and several grandsons of Politburo leader Ismail Hania were killed in Israel's attack on the Gaza Strip.

According to the Hamas Media Office10According to a statement released today, Hania's three sons and several grandsons were killed in Israel's attack on the Shati refugee camp in Gaza City.

Hania said in an interview with Al Jazeera that his son and grandchildren were killed when they were hit by missiles fired by Israeli drones while driving to visit relatives during Eid al Fitr. He is already close60A relative died in the conflict.

Hania claimed that the attack on his relatives is evidence of Israel's "failure" and will not change Hamas's position in the Gaza Strip ceasefire negotiations.

The ongoing conflict may drag down other countries, especially Hamas supporters and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)Iran, the third largest oil producing country.

Mexico's decision to restrict crude oil exports to supply domestic refineries has also supported oil prices and led to4At the beginning of the month, the United States imported a record low amount of crude oil from Mexico.

Oil prices had fallen earlier, after US government data showed that due to weak demand and reduced oil exports, crude oil growth far exceeded expectations last week, leading to an unexpected increase in finished oil storage.

US Energy Information Administration(EIA)As of4month5During the past week, crude oil inventories increased580Ten thousand barrels, reaching4.573Billion barrels, while analysts expect an increase240Ten thousand barrels. Last week, gasoline inventory increased70Ten thousand barrels. Increase in distillate oil inventory170Ten thousand barrels.

　　EIAThe data also shows that the supply of refined oil, which measures fuel demand, has decreased by approximately21010000 barrels/Today, crude oil exports have decreased27010000 barrels/Day.

　　IGResident Market Analyst in SingaporeTony SycamoreAt the beginning of this week, due to hopes of a ceasefire in Gaza and an increase in US inventories, crude oil prices rose and some of the heat has subsided.