Da Tian Jin Ye: Gold Ignores Non Agricultural Gains and Goes Higher, This Week Will WelcomeCPIdata

As of2024year04month09During the Japanese Asian session, the currentgoldThe price can be said to have entered an unstoppable level. Even if there have been some bearish sentiment recently, it has not brought too obvious room for decline. On the contrary, after stabilizing, it has repeatedly broken historical highs, indicating that the market is still full of confidence in bulls at this stage. Last week's non farm data actually performed quite well, and the risk aversion in the Middle East has also cooled down. However, due to the approaching time of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut in June, gold prices have remained strong recently.

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　　The decline in gold prices due to risk aversion and cooling is also limited

Gold prices have once again reached a historic high, despite the United States3The employment growth in the month was strong, but multiple factors including US interest rate cuts, speculative buying, and central bank purchases have led to record high gold prices. Geopolitical turmoil has also provided strong upward momentum for gold prices.

For this week, the market will welcome the United StatesCPIInvestors need to pay close attention to the data and minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, as well as the interest rate resolutions of the Federal Reserve of New Zealand, the Bank of Canada, and the European Central Bank.

Considering that the impact of geopolitical conditions on gold prices is generally brief, and that US economic data is relatively strong, the Federal Reserve6The expectation of monthly interest rate cuts has cooled down, and after the continuous rise in oil prices, there are signs of a rebound in US inflation growth. In addition, Federal Reserve officials have given hawkish speeches, suggesting that there is a possibility of gold prices rising and falling or fluctuating at high levels this week.

Multiple Israeli media outlets4month7The daily newspaper reported that the Israeli Defense Forces have been conducting continuous operations in the southern Gaza Strip, including Khan Younis4After months of fighting, at7Japan withdrew most of its ground troops. Currently, there is only one brigade left in the Gaza Strip to prevent the return of Gaza residents to the north.

This sudden retreat is widely believed by the outside world to be in response to Iran's1The retaliation of the Japanese Israeli army's attack on its embassy and consulate in Syria. At the same time, it was mentioned that Israel's economy has been severely dragged down by prolonged military actions.

United States3The monthly employment growth far exceeded expectations and wages steadily increased, indicating a stable economic performance at the end of the first quarter, which may prompt the Federal Reserve Board of the United States(Federal Reserve/FED)Delay the expected interest rate cut that is expected to begin this year.

The highly anticipated employment report released by the Ministry of Labor last Friday also showed that,3Monthly unemployment rate from2Of3.9%lower3.8%. The decline in unemployment rate reflects a significant rebound in household employment, and the economy has easily absorbed it46.9Ten thousand new labor force.

The unemployment rate in the United States has been continuous26Keep at4%The duration is1960The longest since the end of the decade. Although the Federal Reserve has since2022year3The interest rate has been raised since the beginning of the month525To curb inflation, the US economy is still far ahead globally. The labor market has benefited from an increase in the number of immigrants over the past year.

Although the strong recruitment campaign has not changed expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to relax policies this year in the face of an increase in labor supply, financial markets are skeptical of the three rate cuts expected by decision-makers.

The US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics states that,3Monthly increase in non farm employment opportunities30.3Ten thousand, the economists surveyed are expected to increase20Ten thousand, specific predictions in1510000 to25Between ten thousand.1Month and2The number of new job opportunities per month is higher than previously announced2.2Ten thousand.

　　Middle East situation eases, oil prices fall back

Oil prices have fallen by more than2%The tension in the Middle East has eased after Israel withdrew more soldiers from southern Gaza and promised new negotiations on a possible ceasefire.

Israel and Hamas have dispatched teams to Egypt to negotiate a new round of ceasefire that could be reached before the Eid al Fitr holiday, easing tensions in the Middle East.

　　IGMarket analystTony Sycamore"Israel claims to have withdrawn all troops except for one brigade from southern Gaza, possibly in response to increasing international pressure or to ease tensions after Israel killed a senior Iranian commander in Syria last week. This event seems to be a catalyst for the decline in oil prices," he said

Israel Sunday(4month7day)It is stated that more soldiers have been withdrawn from southern Gaza, and currently only one brigade's strength remains;At the same time, Israel and Hamas respectively dispatched negotiation teams to Egypt for a new round of ceasefire negotiations.

Since the beginning of this year, Israel has been reducing the number of soldiers stationed in Gaza to ease the pressure on reserve personnel, and Israel is facing increasing pressure from its ally, the United States, to improve the humanitarian situation, especially after seven aid workers were killed last week.

The military spokesperson did not provide a detailed explanation of the reasons for the withdrawal or the number of people involved. But Secretary of Defense Galant(Yoav Gallant)These troops will prepare for future operations in Gaza.

Both Israel and Hamas have confirmed that they will send a delegation to Egypt. Hamas hopes to reach an agreement that will end the war and allow Israel to withdraw its troops. Israel has stated that it will overthrow Hamas after reaching any ceasefire agreement.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has stated that if the hostages are not released, the agreement will be waived and he will not yield to international pressure. Hamas stated that the agreement must include freedom of movement for the entire Gaza Strip population.

Approximately130The hostage is still being held in Gaza. When asked about the withdrawal of troops from Gaza, the Israeli Chief of General StaffHerzi HaleviThe military is adjusting its methods to cope with this long-term resistance war, according to reporters.

Galant stated that Israel will continue to advance this war until Hamas no longer controls Gaza or poses a threat to Israel as a military group. According to a statement released by Galant's office, Galant stated during a meeting with military officials, "The troops are withdrawing and preparing to proceed with the next mission as well as the upcoming mission in the Rafah area."

Baker Hughes(Baker Hughes)Last Friday, in its report, it was reported that the US oil drilling platform increased by two last week, reaching508And the number of natural gas drilling platforms decreased by two, to110For2022year1The lowest since the beginning of the month.