Da Tian Jin Ye: Poor non-agricultural performance affects interest rate cuts, but gold prices remain invincible

As of2024year04month08In the Japanese Asian session, last Friday, the market released highly concerned non farm payroll data, which showed that the US labor market remained strong, which may lead to a delay in the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut. However, such a phenomenon has not affectedgoldThe price exerted too much pressure, but instead rebounded after a slight decline and broke through again2300Da Guan has also gained support in terms of risk aversion, indicating that there is no weakening trend among bulls.

　　

　　Non agricultural data is difficult to prevent gold from reaching new highs

The price of gold has once again reached a historic high, thanks to support from various factors, including market expectations for a US interest rate cut, speculative buying, and central bank buying. Although US economic data shows that3The strong growth of non farm employment in the month did not affect the upward trend of gold.

Market observers point out that capital inflows continue to increase, and all parties are chasing high levels. The central bank's buying and speculative buying have also boosted gold prices. Even though the employment report released by the US Department of Labor shows that the number of new jobs added last month reached30.3Ten thousand, exceeding expectations, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell also reiterated that there is currently no rush to reduce borrowing costs.

Director of Commodity Strategy at Daoming SecuritiesBart MelekIt is believed that some investors may have carried out short covering when gold prices fell, and technical indicators have also pushed gold prices up to2300Above the resistance level of the US dollar. At the same time, hedge funds and fund managers have reached a bullish betting level on gold4The highest level in years.

GaolingfuturesMetal Trading SupervisorDavid MegerDespite concerns about inflation remaining later this year, it still poses a potential positive impact on the gold market. Currently, traders expect the Federal Reserve to6The likelihood of a monthly interest rate cut is approximately59%Lower interest rates lower the opportunity cost of holding gold.

According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics,3The total number of non farm employment increased in the month30.3Ten thousand people, higher than in the past12Monthly average increase23.110000 people.3The monthly employment growth exceeded expectations, while wages continued to rise, indicating that the US economy ended on a stable basis in the first quarter, and the expected time for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year may be delayed.

　　3Monthly average hourly wage increased month on month0.3%, higher than2Of the month0.2%;YoY growth from4.3%lower4.1%But still at a high level.3%-3.5%The salary increase is considered in line with the Federal Reserve2%The inflation target. Therefore, inflation remains above the target. Unemployment rate varies from2Of3.9%lower3Of3.8%. Continuous unemployment rate26Months below4%This is from the last century60The longest time since the end of the decade.

The data also shows that,1The number of new non-agricultural employment in the month increased from22.9Ten thousand people have reached the highest level of cultivation25.6ten thousand people;2The number of new non-agricultural employment in the month increased from27.5Ten thousand people down to the next level27Ten thousand people. After these revisions,1Month and2The total monthly employment increase compared to before correction2.210000 people.

After the release of US employment data, the US2period/10The inverted range of one-year treasury bond bond yield curve deepened-31.7Basis points.

　　3After the release of the monthly non-agricultural report, the swap market has been downgraded2024The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates this year. The swap market will fully price the first date of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut from7Month postponed to9Month.CMEFederal Reserve observation shows that after the release of employment data, US interest rate futures will6The probability of monthly interest rate cuts has decreased to54.5%Before the data release59.8%。

　　Geopolitical tensions increase oil demand

Under the current global geopolitical tension, the oil market continues to be affected by various factors. Iran's actions, attacks on Russian refineries, andOPEC+The policy adjustments are constantly causing market fluctuations. Meanwhile, the strong growth in US employment data has also had an impact on oil demand. All these factors are intertwined, adding more unknown factors to the future trend of the oil market.

The market is highly concerned about signs of direct supply tightening in the Middle East conflict, which could lead to Brentcrude oilThe benchmark price of West Texas medium crude oil in the United States rose more than1dollar/Bucket, set a record since last year10The highest level since the month.

Iran, the third largest oil producer of OPEC, intends to continue the tense situation in the Middle East, which has led to Brent crude oil and West Texas medium crude oil rising more than this week4%. In this ever-changing environment, an attack on a refinery in Russia could lead to the country exceeding15%The interruption of fuel production capacity has affected its fuel production.

Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)And allies led by Russia(OPEC+)This week, we maintained our oil supply policy and called on some countries to increase their production reduction efforts. At present, the total voluntary production reduction has reached22010000 barrels/Day, and will last at least until6At the end of the month. These production reductions are a supplement to the existing agreement, which already includes daily production reductions366Ten thousand barrels.

Analysts from ANZ Bank pointed out in a report that increasing compliance with quotas may lead to a further decline in output in the second quarter. The prospect of a tightening market may lead to a decrease in inventory in the second quarter.

Gazprom(Gazprom Neft)estimate2024The average annual oil price is80-100dollar/Bucket.

Baker Hughes, an energy service company, stated that the US energy company has reduced the number of oil and gas drilling platforms for the third consecutive week this week, which is due to10The first consecutive reduction since the beginning of the month. As of4month5During the current week, the number of oil and gas drilling rigs decreased1Seat, to620Seat2The lowest level since the beginning of the month.

Morgan Stanley analysts predict in a report that global oil demand will increase in the first quarter14010000 barrels/Day.

Meanwhile, according to official data released on Friday, the United States3The employment growth in the month significantly exceeded expectations, resulting in an increase303,000This suggests that oil demand may be strong, but it may also delay the Federal Reserve's expected interest rate cut later this year.