Ultima MarketsMarket Review and Outlook: Super Central Bank Week, US Dollar Still Rises...

Last week's review

Last week, the Japanese labor union finally announced that they had won5.28%The total salary increase is30The largest increase in the year. Japan's inflation is expected to steadily rise, which to some extent promotes the Bank of Japan to accelerate the end of negative interest rate policies.crude oilOn the one hand, the release of the three major crude oil market reports has led to a sustained increase in international crude oil prices, includingIEAThe forecast for oil demand growth this year has been raised, and it is expected that oil supply will be slightly lower than demand this year.

Market outlook

The super central bank's weekly heavyweight is approaching. As a2024The most intensive week of central bank resolutions since the beginning of the year has been filled with uncertainty in the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan. The Federal Reserve of Australia, the Swiss Central Bank, and the Bank of England will unintentionally keep interest rates unchanged, and the market will focus on the central bank's views on future economic forecasts. In terms of financial data, Canada and the United Kingdom will release2Monthly inflation rates will be announced by European countries in the second half of the week3Monthly LatestPMIInitial value. There have been significant fluctuations in this week's events, so investors should pay attention to the risk of their positions.

The trend of the Australian dollar will be determined

On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve of Australia will release its latest interest rate decision, with market expectations for interest rates to remain at4.35%No change. Inflation in Australia is steadily declining, and investors are focused on whether the Federal Reserve of Australia will continue to maintain its hawkish stance. And this week, Australia subsequently announced2The monthly unemployment rate may affect the direction of the Australian dollar trend.

The Japanese yen's fate hangs on the line

The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision will be announced on Tuesday as one of the highlights of the week, with the market paying close attention to it3Will the central bank end its negative interest rate policy. Last week's salary negotiation finally won5.28%The increase effectively stimulates the future inflation trend. Whether the Bank of Japan will be affected and make a clear adjustment to its negative interest rate policy remains to be seen in the Japanese yen. If the Bank of Japan continues to hold its ground, there will be a significant increase in selling pressure on the yen.

There is still hope for an upward trend in the US dollar

On Thursday morning Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced its latest interest rate resolution and economic forecast. Against the backdrop of persistent inflation this year,3There is a high probability that interest rates will not be lowered on a monthly basis, and the market's focus will shift to the number of rate cuts this year. last year12The monthly lattice chart indicatesFOMCExpected interest rate cut this year3Next, if3If the magnitude and frequency of interest rate cuts on the monthly chart are less than in the previous period, the US dollar will significantly rise.

GBP adjustment or end

On Thursday evening, the Bank of England announced its latest interest rate decision. On Wednesday, the market will first receive the latest inflation data. If there are no significant changes, the Bank of England will still maintain its stance on crude oil and will not implement loose monetary policy too soon. This will to some extent support the exchange rate of the pound.

Disclaimers

The comments, news, research, analysis, pricing, and other information contained in this article can only be considered as general market information and are provided solely to assist readers in understanding the market situation and do not constitute investment advice.UltimaMarketsReasonable measures have been taken to ensure the accuracy of the data, but the accuracy of the data cannot be guaranteed and can be changed at any time without notice.UltimaMarketsWe will not be responsible for any losses or losses (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information.