Ultima MarketsMarket Review and Outlook: US Inflation Still Key, Japan...

Last week's review

Last week, both the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged as scheduled. Bank of Canada Governor McLehm stated that inflation rates will decrease2024Maintain close proximity until mid year3%Therefore, it is still too early to consider lowering interest rates. The European Central Bank announced that it may release a new monetary policy framework this week. In addition, European Central Bank Managing Director Simkus stated that it is highly likely6Monthly interest rate reduction.

The final data of market attention shows that the number of non farm workers in the United States has reached27.5Ten thousand, higher than expected, but the unemployment rate has also reached3.9%, higher than expected. After the data is released, it is widely believed that this will stimulate the Federal Reserve to make an early decision to cut interest rates. Swap market fully priced by the Federal Reserve6Interest rates will be lowered in the month25One basis point. The US index fell below the moving average103Integer level,goldStrong and innovative high, with a weekly increase exceeding100USD.

Market outlook

Against the backdrop of a weak US dollar and continuous record highs in gold. Any impact on investors' judgment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut will lead to a rebound in the US dollar, with US inflation data and monthly retail sales rates becoming the focus of the market this week. In addition, Japan's "spring battle" - a nationwide labor management negotiation - will become a barometer for whether the Bank of Japan will end negative interest rates, and pay attention to the results of salary increases at that time. Oil prices have been fluctuating and adjusting continuously for nearly a month, with the three major onescrude oilThe future expectation judgment in the report may become a key driver for oil price to break through the range.

U.S.ACPIStill having a question mark

This Tuesday, the United States announced2end of the monthCPIData, this is the Federal Reserve3The last inflation data before the monthly interest rate decision. Previously, overallCPIData always remains in place3%, CoreCPIThen approach4%. If this weekCPIIf there is an unexpected increase in data, then6The expectation of monthly interest rate cuts will still be questioned.

Salary negotiation is becoming a trend, targeting

This week, the results of negotiations between large Japanese companies and unions regarding salary increases will be released, which will become a key data determining the direction of the Bank of Japan. The current market expectation is for a salary increase3.8%The planned increase in wages will lead to further inflation, and the Bank of Japan may end its negative interest rate policy next week. At that time, the Japanese stock market and yen exchange rate will experience a trend trend trend.

Terrorist data can no longer be terrifying

Another heavyweight data for the United States this week - retail sales data will be released on Thursday. Investors expect data to be available1Month on month decrease0.8%Afterwards,2Retail sales will rebound in the month0.3%. If the data continues to exceed expectations and slow down, it may enhance market support for the Federal Reserve6The expectation of a monthly interest rate cut.

Disclaimers

The comments, news, research, analysis, pricing, and other information contained in this article can only be considered as general market information and are provided solely to assist readers in understanding the market situation and do not constitute investment advice.UltimaMarketsReasonable measures have been taken to ensure the accuracy of the data, but the accuracy of the data cannot be guaranteed and can be changed at any time without notice.UltimaMarketsWe will not be responsible for any losses or losses (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may arise from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information.