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As of2024year03month06日亚盘,由于美国的通胀水平回落符合预期,因此导致美联储六月份降息的预期大增,这也是gold价格近期大幅走高的主要原因,目前已经成功突破了2100大关,大有剑指新高的趋势。不过,接下来本周还是需要关注一些重磅数据和事件,尤其是周五晚的非农数据以及美联储主席鲍威尔对于降息方面的态度。
大田环球限价无滑点,Low point difference,利益有保障:202.hk/zhuanti/xpt_v1.html?c=812
受美国制造业和建筑业支出不振以及物价压力减弱的推动,上周金价大涨约50USD.Blue Line FuturesChief Market StrategistPhillip Streible表示,金价能轻松突破纪录高位。
Streible补充称:“(Chairman of the Federal Reserve)鲍威尔本周将发表两次讲话,他可能会表现得更加鸽派一些......我们可能会看到周五的(U.S.A)就业数据不及预期。”
According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve3Monthly interest rate maintained at5.25%-5.50%The probability of interval invariance is97.0%Interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is3.0%。 reach5The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is78.5%Accumulated interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is21.0%Accumulated interest rate reduction50The probability of a basis point is0.6%。
到6The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is35.7%Accumulated interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is52.7%Accumulated interest rate reduction50The probability of a basis point is11.3%Accumulated interest rate reduction75The probability of a basis point is0.3%。
亚洲时段,美原油窄幅震荡,目前交投于78.59dollar/桶。油价周一冲高回落,因OPEC+As expected, oil producing countries have extended their voluntary production cuts until mid year, while US oil prices have risen by nearly1%However, demand concerns subsequently overshadowed the market, causing oil prices to shift from rising to falling.
Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)Composed of its alliesOPEC+Transform it22010000 barrels/日的自愿石油减产计划延长至第二季度,以在全球经济增长令人担忧和该联盟以外国家产量上升的情况下支撑油价。
Again Capital LLCpartnerJohn KilduffIndicating that althoughOPEC+宣布了减产计划,但北半球暖冬的结束仍对油价构成了压力。
美国能源信息署上周的数据显示,包括取暖油在内的美国馏分油供应量在12月份下降至36110000 barrels/Day11The month has decreased by about10%Yes2020year6The lowest level since the beginning of the month.