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As of2024year03month01日亚盘时段,在美国第四季度GDP数据出现回落的影响下,gold价格昨日延续了小幅回升,但目前短期方向仍然不明朗,而昨晚公布的通胀数据和预期相差不大,所以关于美联储降息的预期还是存在不确定性,目前更多预计的是将会在6月份启动首次降息。接下来金融市场会继续从经济数据身上寻求干扰货币政策的线索,比如下周的非农数据。
Hong Kong's top ten pension company, Datian Global Zero slip point low point difference:202.hk/zhuanti/cpc_v1.html?c=812
According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve3Monthly interest rate maintained at5.25%-5.50%The probability of interval invariance is97.5%Interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is2.5%。
到5The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is80.6%Accumulated interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is19.0%Accumulated interest rate reduction50The probability of a basis point is0.4%。
到6The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged on a monthly basis is36.3%Accumulated interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point is52.6%Accumulated interest rate reduction50The probability of a basis point is10.8%。
US Energy Information Administration(EIA)On Wednesday, as of2month23During the current week, crude oil inventory increased420Ten thousand barrels, expected to increase270Ten thousand barrels.1月冬季暴风雪后炼厂计划外停工,以及计划中的检修,导致原油库存连续五周上升。
上周炼厂产能利用率上升0.9Percentage points, to81.5%, but lower than10年的季节性平均水平。过去一个月里,产能利用率一直低于83%,持续时间为近三年来最长。
Again CapitalpartnerJohn Kilduff称:“炼厂在很大程度上仍处于观望状态,并没有真正努力从寒流过后生产中断的状态中迅速恢复。”
Last year11Month,OPEC+Agree to voluntarily reduce production by approximately22010000 barrels/日,其中沙特阿拉伯率先延长了自愿减产。但是,维多能源集团表示,石油市场无法承受俄罗斯产量下降的后果。
俄罗斯表示,俄罗斯石油和石油产品出口在OPEC+The reduction in proportion in the agreement is not so important, the most important thing is the reduction in exports5010000 barrels/Day.