CPT Markets: US Q4GDPThe data suggests that the economy is weaker than expected! The Bank of England and the European Central Bank...

Today's Focus

today(02month29day)At the opening of the Asian market, the US dollar rose while other currencies generally fell; The price of gold has risen, butcrude oilIt is showing a downward trend. foreign exchangeAspect: The US dollar index has risen to103.93； The euro fell against the US dollar to1.0838； The pound fell against the US dollar to1.2661； The US dollar rose against the Japanese yen to150.64； The US dollar rose against the Canadian dollar to1.3577； The Australian dollar fell against the US dollar to0.6494。 In terms of precious metals:goldRising to USD2034.43。 In terms of crude oil: Brent crude oil fell to81.82。

USD Index (DXY)：

The US dollar index rose and fell behind during Wednesday's trading session, but opened today for consolidation103.93Nearby, due to the fourth quarter of the United StatesGDPSome details in the data report, such as corporate investment and consumer spending on durable goods, indicate that the economic environment may be more fragile than expected.

US Q4 ActualGDPAfter adjusting the annualized quarterly rate, it is3.2%, slightly lower than previous expectations3.3%. The actual quarterly rate of personal consumption expenditure is3%, higher than previous2.8%. In the US economy7-9Rose degree4.9%At the same time as the speed of growth,2023The expected annual economic growth rate is2.5%, higher than2022Of1.9%, exceeding what Federal Reserve officials believe1.8%The non inflationary growth rate. However, some signs indicate that this growth momentum has weakened.1Monthly retail sales, housing starts, durable goods orders, and factory production all experienced a decline. Part of the weak data from last month can be attributed to the difficulty in adjusting for low temperature weather and seasonal fluctuations at the beginning of the year.

In terms of financial event data yesterday, the United States Department of Commerce announced the actual situation of the fourth quarterGDPThe annualized quarterly rate has decreased to3.2%This reflects a slight contraction in the country's economic development, a decrease in national income, and a weakening of consumption capacity. Announced by the US Bureau of Business Statistics1The monthly wholesale inventory rate is significantly lower than expected-0.1%A decrease in wholesale inventory indicates that retailers are purchasing more goods to meet strong or increasing demand. In addition, the US Department of Commerce announced its core for the fourth quarterPCEThe annualized quarterly rate of the price index is higher than expected2.1%, indicating a slight increase in inflationary pressure, but approaching2%Long term inflation target.

From the upward direction, the upper suppression(Upper resistance) 103.90，104.30； From the downward direction, the lower support103.50。

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euro/pound (EURGBP)：

After a significant rise in the euro against the pound on Wednesday, it opened today for consolidation0.8560Nearby, analysts pointed out that the European Central Bank and the Bank of England may shift more clearly towards loose policies in the coming months.

Economists at HSBC recently predicted that the start of this year's interest rate cut cycle will have a mild negative impact on the euro and pound, even though the market has already priced the cut, just like in previous cycles. It is expected that the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will6The Bank of England is more likely to lower interest rates for the first time this month8Monthly interest rate reduction. Both the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are unlikely to make specific interest rate cuts, but both may ultimately be more dovish than the Federal Reserve's cycles, putting pressure on their currencies. Meanwhile, it is expected that the global economy will slow down this year, so risk sentiment is unlikely to improve significantly. Therefore, support for both currencies will be limited. In this situation, we expect the euro and pound to weaken slightly against the US dollar this year.

In terms of yesterday's financial event data, the Eurostat announced the Eurozone2The monthly consumer confidence index is as expected-15.5This reflects that consumers and business owners still have low expectations for the future economy and consumption. In addition, the Eurostat announced the Eurozone2The monthly economic indicators are generally lower than expected,2The monthly economic prosperity index has once again increased from96.1lower95.4, lower than expected96.7This indicates that the markets of Eurozone countries are somewhat conservative about their future economic prospects. In response, analysts from Dutch International Group stated that the eurozone economy has been affected by2022It has stagnated since the end of the year, and the survey shows that there was no meaningful improvement in the first quarter. At the same time, traders will closely monitor the latest inflation data released by the eurozone, with an expected consumer price reconciliation indexHICPby2.5%, CoreHICPby2.9%。

From the upward direction, the upper suppression(Upper resistance) 0.8560，0.8600； From the downward direction, the lower support0.8520。

CPT MarketsRisk Tips and Disclaimers : The above article content is for reference only and is not intended as future investment advice.CPT Markets The articles published are mainly based on international financial data reports and international news as reference.