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today7:30,日本总务省统计局公布日本1Monthly CoreCPI年率数据,最新值2%Compared to previous values2.3%decline0.3个百分点,略高于预期值1.8%。数据公布后,USDJPYof5minuteK线以长阴线收盘,跌势显著。历史数据看,日本的核心CPI年率已经连续三个月下降,累计降幅0.9个百分点,平均每月下降0.3个百分点。今年1月份的降幅正好等于平均月下降幅度。2%的水平是日本央行设定的长期通胀调控目标,也是各个国家共同追求的温和通胀标准。虽然日本1月份的核心通胀率与日本央行的目标重合,但过去12个月的平均通胀率为2.9%,长期通胀仍高于日本央行的目标水平。主流预期认为,日本央行将会在今年的某次利率决议上加息一次,放弃当前不合时宜的负利率政策。正如日本央行行长植田和男所说:“一旦稳定的通胀目标出现,日本央行将考虑是否结束包括低于零的借贷成本在内的刺激措施。”
The above picture showsUSDJPY的日线级别走势图。技术角度看,USDJPY处于中长期上涨趋势之中。上升通道内的行情已经完成“5浪上涨结构”,未来有可能开启3浪下跌。今年1月初至今的反弹波段,最高点达到前一轮下跌波段的0.236分位上方。如果行情在此处遇阻,则调整浪的C浪下跌或将出现。如果上涨波段突破前一轮下跌波段的最高点151.90(当前市价为150.25),则波浪结构遭到破坏,后市延续上涨趋势的可能性较高。
Risk reminder, disclaimer, special statement:
There are risks in the market, and investment needs to be cautious. The above content only represents the analyst's personal views and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not consider this report as the sole reference. At different times, analysts' perspectives may change, and updates will not be notified separately.